#美联储恢复降息节奏 Recently saw two pieces of news, which felt quite subtle — on the surface it is sweet, but as you chew on it, you can taste a bit of bitterness.

First, let's talk about this "hawkish official calling for a rate cut" fantasy scenario. Waller, who is usually known for his toughness, suddenly changed his tune, and the market immediately pushed the probability of a rate cut next month to seventy percent. What does this indicate? Everyone is already certain that liquidity is on the way. As cheap money floods in, risk assets naturally rise, and things like BTC often dance to the rhythm of the Nasdaq, making a short-term surge almost inevitable.

But we have to think about it the other way around: even the hardest hawks have softened their stance, could it be because the economic data has become so bad that they have to ease? Is it that employment has collapsed or inflation can no longer be sustained? If it is indeed an economic recession forcing interest rate cuts, then the subsequent scenario won't be pretty—all high beta assets will suffer, and the crypto market cannot be an exception.

Looking at the crazy moves over in Milan. He plans to adjust the balance sheet and buy more government bonds – it sounds very technical, but essentially it's just finding ways to inject money into the market. When there's more money, it has to find an outlet, and flowing into the stock market or the crypto space are the usual paths. Especially for BTC, which has been hyped as an "anti-inflation artifact", it naturally absorbs the excess liquidity.

So the current situation is: expectations for interest rate cuts are fermenting, asset allocation is adjusting, and both lines point in the same direction - easing. In the short term, mainstream coins are likely to take off with the sentiment. However, mid-term risks cannot be ignored: what if the market plunges after the good news is realized? Historically, there have been many cases of "expectations fully priced in, followed by a market crash". Especially those AI concept coins with valuations already floating high, and various altcoin projects, once the panic index rises, they can drop harder than anyone else.

In simple terms: there might be profits to make in this wave, but don’t overindulge. Especially don’t rush into those messy small coins just because you see prices rising. If you have profits in hand, set your take-profit line. The Federal Reserve's strategy has always been to give candy first and then slap you in the face; history keeps repeating itself, it’s just a matter of whether you can remember the lesson.