First, the CMD predicts that the probability of a rate cut in December has increased to 80%.

Secondly, today is Tuesday, regarding Trump's 28-point plan, Trump has requested Ukraine to sign a ceasefire agreement with Russia before Thanksgiving, that is, before noon on Thursday Beijing time or noon on Friday. Although the 28-point ceasefire agreement is quite absurd, there were reports last night that it has already been revised. The reason Trump is being so tough is to showcase his diplomatic achievements in his first year in office to the United States, thereby increasing his leverage for the midterm elections. Moreover, the Ukrainian President Zelensky's government has previously been exposed for corruption scandals, and of course, how many in the upper echelons of the Ukrainian government are clean. But the most important point is that the Ukrainian Anti-Corruption Bureau is an independent institution from the presidential government, established under the leadership of the United States, and is essentially one of the US intelligence agencies. This means that Trump has leverage over Zelensky.
This is also one of the main reasons why some Wall Street giants have claimed that Bitcoin and Ethereum will reach new highs within 45 days.
Secondly, there are economic issues. According to economists' analysis, this year has replayed the tariffs and shutdowns of 2018, causing the U.S. stock market to drop before the midterm elections, while also allowing enough room for growth. Next year, being an election year, Trump can only allow the U.S. stock market to continue to grow to increase his leverage for the election.
If the Russia-Ukraine conflict comes to a halt, the frozen Russian assets of 300 billion dollars will flow into the market in the short term, while sanctions against Russia's economy will cease. Russia's cheap energy will impact the market, causing crude oil prices to plummet, and the assets withdrawn from crude oil will provide liquidity for other assets.
Starting from December 1st, the Federal Reserve will stop the balance sheet reduction, halting the action of withdrawing $95 billion in liquidity each month, which will bring $37.5 billion in liquidity to the market each month.
Starting from the first quarter of next year, the balance sheet will expand, with an additional 40 billion liquidity added to the market each month.