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#ETH US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) analysis



The most recent reference is the September US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP), and the data for October and November will be postponed to December 16, after the Federal Reserve's December meeting. The September US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) show a clear divergence: first, the new jobs exceeded expectations, with 119,000 new non-farm jobs in September, far exceeding the expectation of 51,000, but the August figure was revised down to -4,000, with a total downward revision of 33,000 over the past two months; second, the unemployment rate rose, with the September unemployment rate increasing to 4.4%, which is 0.1 percentage points higher than both the previous value and expectations, due to a significant increase in the unemployed population; third, the structure is weak, with new jobs concentrated in the education, healthcare, and leisure and hospitality sectors, while the private sector employment situation is bleak, and the number of permanent job losers increased month-on-month. This divergent data has led the market to believe that the labor market is actually weakening, becoming one of the important bases for betting on interest rate cuts.
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