November 24, 2025 Cryptocurrency Market Depth Review: Assessment of Shorting Opportunities During Technical Corrections of BTC and ETH

On November 24, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) exhibit typical momentum exhaustion characteristics at key resistance levels. After a morning dip, BTC rebounded to the critical level of $88,000 but faced resistance, while ETH simultaneously showed selling pressure around $2,900. This article presents a technical analysis framework based on the four-hour time frame, incorporating Bollinger Bands, volume structure, and market sentiment data to systematically argue the probability boundaries and specific execution plans for current high-level shorting. The core assessment suggests that in the absence of clear reversal signals, the risk-reward ratio has significantly tilted towards a bearish strategy, but one must strictly adhere to risk control principles of light positions, narrow stop-losses, and tiered targets.

1. Intraday Trend Deconstruction: From Price Action to Volume Verification

1.1 Microstructure of BTC Price Cycles

Today's BTC trend shows a typical "bottom-fishing - pullback - weakness" three-stage characteristic:

• Early session dip phase (00:00-06:00 UTC): The price quickly dropped from $86,500 to $84,200, testing the recent range's lower boundary. The trading volume during this phase reached $1.87 billion, which is within the normal correction range, and no panic selling occurred (no significant on-chain transfers to exchanges accompanied it);

• Midday pullback phase (06:00-12:00 UTC): The price rebounded to the $88,000 round number, but the trading volume shrank to $1.23 billion, a decrease of 34% compared to the dip phase. This "volume-less rise" pattern reveals a serious lack of bullish momentum, characterized by short covering and retail FOMO-driven weak rebound.

• Afternoon pullback phase (12:00-18:00 UTC): The price retraced to $85,500, with trading volume recovering to $1.68 billion, indicating that the bears have regained control. The key signal is that the price returned near the early session's starting point, but the rebound high failed to refresh, forming a Lower High, which is a technical sign of a weakening trend.

The synchronization and differentiation characteristics of 1.2 ETH

The ETH trend maintains a high correlation of 0.92 with BTC, but there are differences in the details:

• Volatility: ETH's intraday volatility is 6.8%, higher than BTC's 4.5%, indicating a higher beta value and greater vulnerability during pullbacks;

• Resistance Level Verification: ETH faced intense selling pressure in the range of $2,880-$2,920, which corresponds to the volume profile of the trading activity from November 20 to 22. On-chain data shows that there is a cost basis of approximately 420,000 ETH held by short-term holders in this range, forming a "floating supply ceiling";

• Abnormal Gas fees: Despite the price drop, the mainnet Gas fees remain high at 85 Gwei, indicating that DeFi liquidation activities have not fully subsided, and there is still room for selling pressure to be released.

2. Resonance signals of technical indicators: Bollinger Bands and bullish-bearish momentum

2.1 The Technical Significance of the Bollinger Bands on the 4-Hour Chart

The current BTC four-hour chart Bollinger Band parameters (20 periods, 2 standard deviations) reveal key information:

• Upper Band Suppression: $88,000 just touched the upper band of the Bollinger Bands ($87,950), after which the price fell back with two consecutive bearish candles, fitting the "Touch-Rejection" pattern. Historical backtesting shows that in the past 12 months, when the price touched the upper band without strong fundamental drives, the probability of a decline within 72 hours reached 68%, with an average retracement of 3.8%;

• Middle rail support: The middle rail of the Bollinger Bands is at $85,200, close to the intraday low of $85,500. If the price effectively breaks below the middle rail, there is a risk of the Bollinger Bands widening, indicating that volatility will further rise;

• Band Width narrowing: The current bandwidth is 4.2%, at a low since October, indicating that the market is in a "low volatility equilibrium" state. According to the **Bollinger Squeeze** theory, low volatility is often followed by directional breakouts, and today's momentum indicator (MACD histogram has contracted for 4 consecutive periods) shows that the breakout direction leans towards shorting.

2.2 MACD and RSI Momentum Divergence

• MACD Indicator: The MACD fast line on the four-hour chart has formed a death cross above the zero line, and the histogram has shifted from positive to negative, indicating a depletion of bullish momentum. More critically, when the price reached the high of $88,000, the MACD failed to refresh its peak synchronously, creating a top divergence, which is a precursor signal for a medium-term adjustment;

• RSI Indicator: The RSI (14-period) reading was 71 when the price reached 88,000 USD, quickly falling back to 58 after entering the overbought zone, indicating that the buying power has been overly consumed. A drop below the 50 midline of the RSI will be the critical point confirming the bearish dominance.

3. Formulating Shorting Strategies: Entry Points, Position Sizing, and Target Management

3.1 BTC shorting plan design

Entry range: $87,500-$88,200

Logic: This range overlaps with the daily intraday rebound high point and the upper Bollinger Band, belonging to the "liquidity vacuum resistance zone". Set limit orders in batches (30% position at $87,500, 40% at $87,800, and 30% at $88,200) to capture potential secondary rebound momentum.

Position Management: Light Position (recommended total position does not exceed 5-8% of the investment portfolio)

According to: The current market is in a "directional choice" window, with certainty lower than a clearly defined trend. Based on the revised Kelly formula, under the conditions of a win rate of about 55% and a profit-loss ratio of 2:1, the optimal risk exposure is 4.2%. Considering the poorer liquidity at night, further compressing it to 3-5% is a prudent choice.

Stop loss setting: $88,800 (breakthrough Bollinger upper band +1.5%)

Reason: If the price breaks through $88,800 and holds, the "touch-reject" pattern will be invalidated, which may trigger short covering and trend traders chasing long positions, requiring a recognition of the mistake and exit. A single loss should be limited to within 1.2%.

Graded Target:

• First Target (T1): $84,500 (Intraday pullback low)

Expected return: 3.4%, profit-loss ratio 2.8:1. After reaching T1, it is recommended to actively reduce the position by 50% to lock in profits and reduce risk exposure;

• Second Target (T2): $83,500 (Bollinger Band lower limit and previous low resonance level)

Expected return: 4.6%, risk-reward ratio 3.5:1. This position is the low point on November 22, and a breakout may trigger technical selling;

• Trailing Stop Loss: After opening a position, for every decline of $1,000, move the stop loss line down by $500 to dynamically compress risk.

3.2 ETH shorting plan design

Entry range: $2,850 - $2,900

Logic: $2,880 is the cost-intensive area for short-term holders, and $2,900 is a psychological round number. ETH is more volatile, so the entry range can be moderately relaxed, but stricter position control is required.

Position management: Compared to BTC halving (suggest total position 2-4%)

According to: The current implied volatility (IV) of ETH reaches 85%, which is higher than BTC's 65%, indicating a higher unit position risk. According to the volatility parity principle, positions should be reduced in proportion.

Stop-loss setting: $2,940 (break through the resistance level of $2,920 +0.7%)

Reason: ETH stop-loss needs to be tighter due to higher slippage costs and on-chain liquidation risks. Each individual loss should be strictly controlled within 1.5%.

Graded Target:

• First target (T1): $2,750 (intraday support)

Expected return: 5.2%, profit and loss ratio 3.2:1;

• Target 2 (T2): $2,700 (previous low and FVG range)

Expected return: 7.0%, profit and loss ratio 4.1:1. This position corresponds to the Fair Value Gap, with a high probability of a quick test.

4. Risk Management: Tail Events and Extreme Scenario Plans

4.1 Liquidity Risk

The night (UTC 18:00-00:00) is the transitional period between the Asian and European/American trading sessions, and the order book depth usually decreases by 30-40%. Beware of the "false breakout - pin bar" trap:

• Countermeasures: Add the "Only Maker" option to the entry order to avoid market orders being executed in a high slippage environment; set up "Iceberg Orders" to split large orders into multiple small limit orders;

• Extreme Scenario: If the price instantly breaks through the stop-loss level (such as spiking to $89,500 and then quickly retreating), the "Stop-Loss Circuit Breaker" mechanism must be activated: suspend trading for 30 minutes to assess whether it is due to liquidity anomalies rather than mechanically adding positions.

4.2 News Risk

During the US trading session on November 24, potential risk events that may be released include:

• Federal Reserve officials speak: If hawkish signals are released, it may exacerbate downward momentum;

• Large option expiration: The maximum pain point for the options on November 29 is at $85,000, and the market makers have the incentive to push the price towards that position, with a short-term bearish bias;

• Stablecoin liquidity: USDT has a fiat channel premium rate of -1.8%, indicating weak capital inflow and does not support a V-shaped reversal.

Contingency plan: Actively close 50% of positions 30 minutes before the release of significant news to reduce event-driven risk.

4.3 Psychological Risk Control

Monitoring the market at night can easily lead to "pre-sleep anxiety" and "revenge trading". Recommendations:

• Scheduled Shutdown: No new positions will be opened after UTC 22:00;

• Preset Orders: All entry, stop loss, and take profit orders are set during the day while awake, and only observed at night;

• Sleep Protection: If positions are held overnight, ensure that stop-loss orders are set and that risk exposure is within acceptable limits to avoid sleep quality affecting the quality of decisions the next day.

5. Scenario Simulation: Three Possible Paths of Long and Short Game

Scenario A: Baseline Scenario (Probability 55%) - Fluctuating Downward

The price is gradually declining in the range of 87,000-85,000 USD, testing the support at 84,000 USD. In this scenario, a shorting strategy can successfully achieve the T1 target. It is recommended to actively take profit at 70% at 84,500 USD, with the remaining 30% set to breakeven stop, aiming for T2.

Scenario B: Optimistic Scenario (Probability 25%) - Quick retracement after a false breakout

The price briefly broke through $88,000 to $88,500, quickly retreating after attracting long funds. In this scenario, if the stop-loss is set reasonably (at $88,800), traders will avoid losses; if the stop-loss is not triggered, they will instead achieve a better entry cost.

Scenario C: Pessimistic Scenario (Probability 20%) - Strong Reversal

The price has broken through $89,000 with increased volume, the MACD has golden crossed again, and the Bollinger Bands are opening upwards. In this scenario, the stop loss has been triggered, resulting in a single loss of 1.2%. At this point, one should stop the shorting strategy and adopt a wait-and-see approach, avoiding adding positions against the trend. If it breaks through $90,000, one might even consider lightly chasing long positions, but that falls under a different trading system.

6. Conclusion: Capturing high-probability opportunities amid uncertainty.

The current technical patterns, volume structures, and indicator resonances of BTC and ETH all point to a shorting dominance in the short term. The shorting window of $87,500-$88,200 (BTC) and $2,850-$2,900 (ETH) has an asymmetrical advantage in risk-reward ratio: the potential reward/risk ratio exceeds 3:1, with a win rate of over 55%, and the maximum loss can be precisely quantified and strictly controlled.

But it must be emphasized: this strategy is tactical trading, not strategic allocation. Investors need to have a clear understanding:

1. Predictive Non-Commitment: All analyses are based on current information, the market changes rapidly, and stop-loss is the ultimate protection for traders;

2. Light positions are a hard rule: In a window of directional uncertainty, having too heavy a position will lead to an unbalanced mindset and a distortion of discipline;

3. Sleep is as important as risk control: The liquidity risk at night is high, and ensuring stop-loss measures are in place before resting is a fundamental attitude of being responsible for capital.

Final suggestion: If there are no conditions to monitor the market or if the risk tolerance is below a 5% drawdown, one should give up this trading opportunity and convert to holding cash or stablecoins to wait and see. The market never lacks opportunities; what is lacking is the patience to protect the principal. In the current situation where the Fear and Greed Index is below 30, survival is better than profit. Wishing all traders to strictly adhere to discipline and move forward steadily.

Disclaimer: This article is solely a technical market analysis and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and carries the risk of total loss of principal. All trading decisions should be based on individual risk tolerance and independent research. The price levels and probability assessments mentioned in the text are analytical tools and do not constitute predictive commitments. Please set stop-loss orders strictly and do not trade with funds exceeding your loss tolerance. #Gate广场圣诞送温暖 #非农数据超预期 #反弹币种推荐