Have you noticed the "cycle curse" of BTC?

Recently, I reviewed nearly 9 months of intraday fluctuations and found a strange pattern: Bitcoin almost always spikes on Monday and inevitably falls back on Tuesday. This pattern has repeated more than 10 times and can no longer be considered a coincidence.

Why is this happening?

On Monday, the CME futures market reopened, and market makers tested the direction and liquidity depth. By Tuesday, trading volume surged, and the market's “mask” began to fall off, revealing the true direction. Simply put: Monday is an illusion, Tuesday is the truth.

Data Speaks

According to statistics, the price fluctuation from Monday to Tuesday usually falls within the range of 3% to 5%, which means the market provides a stable arbitrage window every week.

Looking at the K-line makes it clear - almost every Monday, BTC forms a local high point in a short cycle, and then on Tuesday, as soon as the market opens, it starts to plummet. Leverage is broken, retail investors panic and try to buy the dip. The market either quickly rebounds into a new phase or enters a new adjustment cycle.

Key Signal Combinations

Don't rush to trade on Monday, focus on looking at this data:

Look at these early warnings:

• OI (Open Interest) is still growing at a high level, but trading volume is shrinking → The market is already very inflated, a warning signal.
• Funding rates remain positive and excessively high → A good opportunity for long accumulation and short arbitrage.
• CVD shows weak buying pressure → The increase is close to the end.
• New highs at high positions but trading volume is shrinking → Market makers are reducing their positions.

Do these signals appear near the high point on Monday? You should consider opening a short position at the market open on Tuesday.

The Issue of CME Gaps

There is also an unfilled gap of about $104 on the chart, which is a “vacuum zone”. According to market inertia, prices usually tend to come back to fill such gaps - indicating that there may still be a wave of pullback in the short term.

Anti-human Game

Retail investors watched BTC rise on Monday and bought in with great excitement; meanwhile, large institutions were quietly offloading.

By Tuesday, BTC plummeted, and retail investors were scared into selling at a loss; meanwhile, the “whales” were quietly buying at low prices.

The real advantage is not in prediction, but in being counterintuitive — most people go with the flow, while a few lead the rhythm.

Advanced Usage

If you already have some experience, you can combine this cycle pattern with the following indicators:

• OI Growth Rate: The high level is still rapidly increasing, indicating that the market is overheated.
• Funding Long-term High Position: Bullish leverage accumulation, high risk of pullback
• CVD Weakening: Prices are still reaching new highs but purchasing power is declining.

These signals collectively triggered at the high point on Monday, marking the most precise short-selling window.

Current Status Summary

BTC is still playing out this “cyclical fluctuation” script: Emotion peaks on Monday → Pressure release and correction on Tuesday → Then enters trend continuation or reversal.

This time-structured arbitrage model is relatively rare, but it will not exist forever - algorithms are learning, markets are evolving, and participants are adapting.

Conclusion: The rhythm of the market often hides in the most subtle details. Mastering the rule of “Monday high point → Tuesday low point” will free you from being enslaved by emotions and allow you to stay half a step ahead of the market's rhythm. True experts do not predict the future; they hear the market's beat half a beat earlier than others.

This model is still alive, so take advantage of it while you can and make money by seizing the time difference.