BTC is playing a heartbeat game again this week: after breaking through 100,000 USD, it is now stuck at a critical position.

This Week's Data Overview (Hong Kong Time November 3rd - 10th)

• BTC: 107000→106200, drop -1.0%
• ETH: 3690→3620, decrease of -1.9%

Core Highlights

Last week, it finally broke through the psychological barrier of $100,000, but this week it was pushed back down. Interestingly, over the weekend, positive news came from Washington, and BTC rebounded to the range of 104,000-107,000 (the previous support level has become a resistance level).

What will happen next? There are two scenarios:

Rising Script: If it breaks through the 107000-108000 range, then the key area of 108000-114000 will reveal some tricks. If it truly breaks through, the market may quickly test the historical high, but the cost will be a larger adjustment afterwards (possibly consolidating for several months).

The Script of Decline: If it doesn't break 107,000, revisiting the support level of 100,000 is not a dream. If it completely breaks down, 95,000 is the ultimate bottom line. However, considering that it has already tested around 98,000, we are only one step away from that position.

Suggestions from the brothers: If it really drops below 100,000, this is a buying opportunity, but don't go all in - remember to leave some margin to avoid being caught off guard by stop-losses or liquidation.

Market Background

This week, global risk assets are a bit anxious: the U.S. government only restarted halfway through the shutdown, and investors are starting to worry about economic impacts. Additionally, there is considerable discussion about the valuation bubble of AI stocks—what if Meta's large-scale investment in AI does not yield the expected revenue?

The cryptocurrency market has not performed well this year, and it is now more vulnerable to being dragged down by risk assets. Although BTC found support in the 98000-100000 range and ETH is bottoming out around 3000, it really pales in comparison to gold/stocks.

Bottom Line Judgment: If the government shutdown ends and the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates again in December, risk assets should hold up until the end of the year. However, if another unexpected event occurs, assets like BTC, which are considered “high risk, low reward,” will be the first to suffer.

Options Market Trends

This week's implied volatility remains flat, stabilizing in the median range of 40%—confirming that we have repriced to a new level. At the beginning of the week, when it fell below 100,000, the volatility briefly dipped, but after finding support, it gradually declined.

Interestingly, short-term volatility has begun to decline (prices are consolidating with a lack of catalysts), but bullish option traders have moved their positions to contracts for December and beyond, giving the market more time to digest.

Skew and Kurtosis: The bearish skew deepens when it falls below 100,000, and after the news of the government shutdown over the weekend, a rebound occurs with bullish options technical buying appearing, and the skew begins to correct. However, structurally, BTC's volatility is still moving in the same direction as the price—this is dancing along with the rhythm of stocks and risk assets.

Kurtosis decreases when the price rebounds from 98000 to the range of 104000-112000. The market is currently looking for a balance point at this new price level, but as long as it breaks out of the wide range of 98000-117000, skew and kurtosis will need to be repriced again.

Good luck to everyone in trading next week!