Polymarket, this prediction market platform, has been quite popular lately. Its valuation has skyrocketed from $1B to possibly $10B, with investors including Founders Fund and DragonFly Capital. This rise is indeed impressive.

Key data shows:
- A total of 10.8 million transactions have been completed, totaling $2.4B
- Current open positions $158.8M, indicating user activity is at
- But there's a hurdle here — only 13.6% of users are making money, and most earn less than $100
.
Recently, Polymarket returned to the US market with regulatory approval, which is a significant event. Behind it, Chainlink oracles are used to ensure the authenticity of the data, and the entire ecosystem is also brewing token and airdrop plans.

In short, this platform has a solid technical foundation, strong financing, and hard partners (including Intercontinental Exchange), but the issue of user profitability must be taken seriously. Compared to traditional financial markets, for this wave of prediction markets to thrive, more retail investors need to be able to truly make money. It is still early days, with both risks and opportunities coexisting.