BTC surged to 111K, is it still a good time to get in?

Recently, BTC has risen for 3 consecutive days, climbing back above 111K. There’s actually some interesting logic behind this rally:

Macro: Fed policy remains uncertain

The Fed’s attitude towards rate cuts has always been a mystery, and the probability of a rate cut in December has dropped to 63% from previously higher levels. This uncertainty puts pressure on the dollar—a weaker dollar usually pushes BTC higher. If the Fed really starts a rate-cutting cycle and global liquidity is released, BTC will directly benefit.

On-chain: Halving effect still fermenting

After the BTC halving in early 2024, historical data shows that price surges usually peak within 12-18 months. We’re right in that window now, and with BTC’s market dominance still steady at 60%, it shows that mainstream funds are still concentrating in BTC.

Sentiment: The higher the price, the lower the mood—this is the real opportunity

Interestingly, although BTC has already rebounded, market sentiment indicators are still in the “fear zone.” According to conventional logic, when prices rise but sentiment lags behind, it often means there’s still room for upside—the retail crowd hasn’t piled in yet.

How to operate?

• Long-term players: DCA (dollar-cost averaging) is the most stable strategy, diversifies risk, locks in cost
• Short-term traders: Watch the 111K resistance level and use the 200-day moving average to find support
• Portfolio investors: Keep BTC allocation at 5%-15%; if gains exceed 50%, consider partial profit-taking and buy back on pullbacks

The key is not to be swayed by short-term noise—focus on Fed developments and on-chain data, not daily micro-movements.