The fryer exploded! US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) hit 119,000, is the crypto world going to bleed tonight?

Brothers, in the past hour, the entire financial market has gone completely crazy! The US Labor Department just released the September US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP), which has stunned everyone—an increase of 119,000 jobs! What does this mean? The market expected only 52,000, and the previous value was only 22,000. This data is simply rubbing the expectations into the ground and then stepping on it a couple of times!
The market software on my phone instantly went crazy, the US dollar index skyrocketed, US stock futures plummeted, and the crypto world was filled with wails. It is not an exaggeration to say that tonight is destined to go down in history, while most people may not yet realize that a bloody storm has just begun.
How terrifying is this data?
We need to clarify what 119,000 in US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) means. Brothers, this isn't just about "data better than expected"; this is a significant boost to the Fed's hawkish stance!
Just think, a month ago, the market was still immersed in the panic of "the US economy is going to recession," and the previous value of 22,000 made everyone feel like "it's all over, the soft landing is going to turn into a hard landing." And what happened? In just a month, the data directly increased by more than 5 times! What does this indicate? It indicates that the US economy is incredibly resilient, and the labor market is scorching hot.
For the Federal Reserve, this is the best "rate hike permit". Uncle Powell can now confidently say: "See? The economy is doing so well, we have absolutely no need to rush to cut rates!" Therefore, market expectations turned 180 degrees in an instant—the probability of a rate cut in November plummeted from 70% yesterday to below 30%, and more aggressive analysts have started to shout, "Don't expect a rate cut before 2026!"
Highlight: This is not an ordinary positive development; it is a fatal blow to the expectations of interest rate cuts. The slogan "Higher for Longer" will completely become the main theme of the market starting today.
Three major shockwaves are on the way, are you ready?
The impact of this wave of US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data will come crashing in three layers like a tsunami, each layer capable of leaving you bankrupt.
The first wave: The dollar king returns, the doomsday of non-US assets.
As soon as the data was released, the US Dollar Index (DXY) skyrocketed from 106 to 108, which is a nuclear-level increase in the forex market. Brothers, what does a strong dollar mean? It means that all risk assets priced in dollars are doomed!
The crypto world is the first to be hit: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and these digital assets are essentially the fighter jets among risk assets. When the US dollar strengthens, funds will crazily flow back to the United States, buying US Treasury bonds and dollar deposits, which are risk-free assets. Who would still be willing to hold volatile cryptocurrencies? Therefore, the selling pressure will come wave after wave, and it simply cannot stop.
Emerging markets are in turmoil: just look at the Turkish lira and Argentine peso today, they have dropped to the point where even their mothers wouldn't recognize them. Capital is fleeing from all corners of the globe to the United States, this is the brutal reality of dollar hegemony.
Second wave: Liquidity dream shattered, high interest rates become the new normal.
Previously, the market fantasized that the Federal Reserve would quickly cut interest rates to provide liquidity. Now? The dream is over! With such strong US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP), the Federal Reserve has enough confidence to maintain high interest rates and may even raise rates again.
What does it mean for the crypto world? It means there is no cheap capital anymore! How did the bull market of 2021 come about? Central banks flooded the market with money! How did the rebound in 2023 happen? Interest rate cut expectations! Now both of these have gone down the drain, and the source of market capital has been cut off. What will support high valuations?
What’s worse is that high interest rates will continue to suppress risk appetite. Just think about it, the risk-free interest rate in the U.S. for one year is almost 5.5% now; who would still be willing to take the risk of liquidation to trade contracts? Funds will continuously flow from risk assets to fixed income products. Once this trend is established, it won't be reversed in a day or two.
The third wave: leverage apocalypse, a crash-style decline is on the way.
This is the most dangerous wave. Brothers, go check the contract data; the current open interest in Bitcoin contracts across the network is over 20 billion USD, with long positions accounting for more than 60%. Among these long positions, how many are at 10x, 20x, or even 50x leverage?
The $85,000 mark is a lifeline! Once it falls below, it will trigger a series of liquidations:
• 85,000 broke → 10x leverage long positions began to be liquidated → price fell to 84,000
• 84,000 reached → 20x leverage long position liquidated → price dropped to 82,000
• 82,000 breaks again → 50x extreme leverage disappears → price heads straight for below 80,000
This is a typical "death spiral" and a panic liquidation. What’s more frightening is that many institutions have set up programmed stop losses, which will automatically sell once the price reaches a certain point. Therefore, when it drops, it often happens particularly quickly, and you can hardly react in time.
Data shows that after the last 6 times when US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) exceeded expectations, the average drop in Bitcoin within 24 hours was 7.2%. However, this time the data exceeded expectations by so much that the decline could be deeper!
The crypto world faces a life-and-death situation tonight: every coin is undergoing a tribulation.
Bitcoin: The 85,000 defense line is the Maginot Line.
BTC is now the focus of the entire market. The $85,000 level has significant technical meaning:
• It is the low point of September.
• It is the position of the 200-day moving average.
• It is a previously dense transaction area.
It can be said that 85,000 is supported by technology, psychology, and capital. But can this level hold? I am very pessimistic.
Why? Because the selling pressure is too heavy! It's not just contract liquidations, but also panic selling on the spot market. Think about it, those early investors who bought in at 60,000 or 70,000, seeing such bad data, wouldn't they think "let's take profits and exit first"? Those institutions and miners, facing expectations of tightening liquidity, wouldn't they sell their reserves in advance?
Once 85,000 is broken, what to look for below?
• First target: 82,000 (previous low)
• Second target: 80,000 (integer threshold)
• Ultimate defense line: 78,000 (annual line position)
But I think if 85,000 can't be held, 80,000 might not be able to be held either. Because panic emotions will spread, the market needs to find a "despair bottom" to rebuild energy.
Ethereum: More Dangerous than Bitcoin
ETH's current situation is worse than BTC's. Why?
First, the narrative of Ethereum has been weakened. In a high interest rate environment, the yields from DeFi have become unattractive. Previously, you could say "staking ETH yields 5%", but now U.S. bonds are offering 5.5%. Who still wants to play DeFi?
Secondly, gas fees remain sluggish. With low on-chain activity, the ETH burn mechanism does not function, affecting the entire economic model.
Third, institutional holdings are more concentrated. The proportion of holdings in the top 1000 Ethereum addresses is even higher than that of Bitcoin. Once these large holders start to sell, the market impact will be more severe.
From a technical perspective, the key support for ETH is at $2500. If it falls below this level, it may head straight to $2300. The resistance level above is at $2750. Want to break through? It's extremely difficult.
SOL, DOGE, MEME coin: Liquidity crisis imminent
These small coins may suffer even more tonight. Why? Because of liquidity! With such poor US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data, market risk aversion is rising, and funds will prioritize withdrawing from the highest-risk assets.
The key support for SOL is at $150; if it breaks, we will look at $130.
DOGE, this purely sentiment-driven coin, may drop back to 0.15 or even 0.12.
Various MEME coins may bleed heavily tonight, with drops of 30%-50% not being surprising.
Brothers, remember one thing: In a bear market, all altcoins are Bitcoin's β; when Bitcoin drops by 10%, they start dropping by 20%.
The panic index has skyrocketed, and market sentiment has dropped to freezing point.
The current panic in the market can no longer be described as "worry"; it is simply "the apocalypse has arrived".
The VIX fear index skyrocketed from 20 to 28, and this was before the US stock market opened. Once the US stock market opens tonight, it is estimated to surge above 30. What does 30 mean? During the pandemic crash in March 2020, the VIX was over 80, but typically, exceeding 30 is already considered extreme panic.
The panic index in the crypto world is even more exaggerated, dropping directly from 60 to 35 (the lower the value, the more panic). What does this mean? It means that the market has瞬间转为"恐慌", and it's deepening.
The capital flow data is even more terrifying: in the past 4 hours, the minting volume of stablecoins USDT and USDC has surged, indicating that everyone is exchanging coins for dollars. Meanwhile, the amount of Bitcoin and Ethereum flowing out of exchanges is also increasing, suggesting that people are withdrawing coins to wallets, preparing to "lie flat" for the long term or hedge against risks.
This shift in sentiment often indicates that the short-term bottom has not yet arrived. Because panic sentiment has a fermentation process, from "worry" to "fear" and then to "despair," we may currently be at the "fear" stage, and it might only be tomorrow morning when we reach the true "despair" moment.
Survival Guide for Bros: Do this tonight to stay alive.
After all this bad news, let's get to the point. In this market situation, how can we operate to survive through tonight?
The First Iron Rule: Refuse to Catch Flying Knives with Bare Hands
Many old friends see the drop and want to buy the dip, thinking "It has dropped so much, it should bounce back now." Brother, this kind of thinking is particularly dangerous tonight!
Remember: in the face of a trend, any bottom-fishing behavior is like an ant trying to stop a chariot. The US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data is so strong that the trend has completely turned bearish. At this time, trying to bottom-fish is not investing; it is gambling.
Correct approach: wait for a rebound and then reduce your position! For example, if Bitcoin drops to 85,000 and rebounds to 86,000 or 87,000, this is your opportunity to reduce your position. Don't think "I'll wait a bit longer after the rebound, it might go back to 90,000"; the market won't give you that chance.
Second Iron Rule: Cash is king, retain strength.
The most important thing now is not how much you earn, but how to survive. How to survive? Having cash in hand!
Operating suggestions:
• If there are still full positions, the rebound tonight must be reduced to below 50%.
• If it is already below 50%, consider reducing it to 30%
• Keep 70% of cash, waiting for the real golden pit.
When will this golden pit appear? It could be tomorrow, it could be next week, or it could be a month later. But as long as you have cash in hand, there is an opportunity. Those who are reluctant to sell now will only regret not cutting losses earlier when it drops to 70,000.
Third Iron Rule: 85,000 is the lifeline, break it and activate defense mode.
The core of all operations tonight is to keep an eye on the 85,000 point.
If 85,000 holds:
• You can take a small position (10%-20%) to speculate on a rebound in the range of 85,000-86,000.
• But the stop loss must be set at 84,800, and must run if it falls below.
• Don't set the rebound target too high; consider taking profits at 88,000.
If 85,000 breaks:
• Don't hesitate, immediately reduce your position by another 30%
• Don't have any fantasies about "selling after a rebound".
• Consider buying back at 80,000 or even 78,000.
The ultimate principle of defensive mode: better to miss the subsequent rebound than to be trapped halfway up the mountain. Selling now, you would lose at most 20%; but if you don’t sell, a drop of 50% or even more is not impossible.
The fourth iron law: Stay away from high leverage; only by staying alive can you have output.
If you dare to play contracts tonight, I respect you as a man, but your wallet may not be safe.
Specific suggestions:
• All leverage above 10x, now immediately close positions.
• For 5x leverage, set a stop loss and top up margin if the margin rate is below 200%.
• Spot players should avoid contracts, especially shorting, as the volatility is too high and a spike can liquidate you.
Remember, in this kind of market, the "spike" phenomenon on exchanges will be particularly frequent. You see the price drop to 85,000, and the next second it might spike down to 83,000 to liquidate the long positions, and then it quickly bounces back to 86,000. You won't have time to react, and your positions will be gone.
History is always remarkably similar: looking back at the US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) in 2018
Some may ask: "Does data really have such a big impact?" Let's take a look at history.
On October 5, 2018, the US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data was also significantly better than expected (250,000 vs expected 180,000), and the Federal Reserve was in a rate-hiking cycle. What was the performance of Bitcoin after the data was released?
• On the same day: fell from $6600 to $6400, a decrease of 3%.
• In 3 days: drop to 6200
• One week later: fell below 6000
• One month later: dropped to 4500
The entire process dropped more than 30%, and it was completed within a month. How many people bought the dip at halfway down? How many people got liquidated because they "thought it had dropped enough"?
How similar is the current situation to that of 2018? It's the same Federal Reserve rate hike cycle, the same data exceeding expectations, and the same tightening of market liquidity. History does not simply repeat itself, but it always carries the same rhyme.
Practical advice for different investors
If you are a short-term trader:
Don't sleep tonight, keep an eye on the market. If 85,000 is broken, go short, with targets at 82,000 and 80,000; if 85,000 holds, wait for a rebound to 87,000 to short, with a stop loss at 87,500. Remember, short-term trading is about going with the trend; currently, the bearish trend is in place, so don't go long.
If you are a medium-term investor:
Tomorrow morning, after waking up, if the price is above 85,000, reduce the position to below 30%; if it falls below 85,000, drop it directly to 10%. Then go to work, go on with life, and don’t keep looking. Wait until the fear index returns to below 20, and then consider gradually buying back.
If you are a long-term holder:
Turn off the computer and go to sleep. 70,000 or 80,000 makes no difference to you because you believe Bitcoin can reach 200,000 or 300,000. But remember, when you do dollar-cost averaging in the future, put it in your wallet, don't leave it on the exchange.
If you are a newcomer just entering the market:
Congratulations, the first lesson is here! Don't trade tonight, learn first. Observe how the market fluctuates, see how panic spreads, and watch how seasoned investors respond. Consider this money as tuition, but don't pay too much.
After the storm, only the true hunters will take action.
After saying so much, I want to leave everyone with a saying: In the financial market, just surviving is the biggest victory.
Tonight's storm is a nightmare for many, but for a few, it is an opportunity. Those hunters who bought in at 85,000, 80,000, or even 75,000 will look back a year from now and be grateful for today's plunge.
But what is the premise? It is that you have to survive until then. So tonight, take care of your hands, watch your positions, don’t gamble, don’t be greedy, don’t act impulsively.
Last but not least, let me emphasize once again:
• Cash is king, keep 70% of the bullets.
• 85,000 is the lifeline, if it breaks then defense.
• Refuse to bottom fish, reduce positions on rebounds
• Stay away from leverage, don't play with contracts.
After the storm, the market will reward those calm, rational, and disciplined investors. And tonight is the touchstone to test whether you can become a "survivor."
Brothers, hold on! Tomorrow the sun will rise as usual, but whether your account can recover depends on how you operate tonight. Remember the advice of the seasoned players: don't go against the Federal Reserve, don't go against the trend, and definitely don't go against your own wallet.
Good luck to everyone, see you tomorrow! #逆势上涨币种推荐 #美联储会议纪要将公布 #比特币行情观察 Bitcoin market observation#