#FOMCMeetingMinutesComingUp

The crypto world is waiting with bated breath: The Fed's October meeting minutes will be released today (November 19, 2025) at 10:00 PM (GMT+3)! 👀
The Fed's interest rate policy roadmap for the last quarter of 2025 is becoming clearer. Let's remember: At the October meeting, the Fed lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00%. This was the second rate cut of the year, and markets were buoyed by the prospect of another "easy money" for a while. However, a rare incident occurred at the meeting – a two-way dissent: One member wanted a more aggressive 50 basis point cut, while another advocated for no rate cut at all. Jerome Powell, at a press conference, gave the markets a cold shoulder by saying, "A December rate cut isn't certain; we're data-dependent."

Now the minutes will be released, and everyone will be wondering: 🔹 Is the "hawk" wing gaining strength within the Fed? Inflation is still hovering above the 2% target. 🔹 How concerned are members about the slowdown in the labor market (recent unemployment claims exceed expectations)? 🔹 How viable will the possibility of a rate cut at the December meeting (December 17-18) remain?

According to current market data (CME FedWatch Tool – as of November 19, 2025): – The probability of a 25 bp rate cut in December fluctuates between 55-60% (it was above 70% a few days ago, but has since declined due to hawkish commentary). – The no-cut scenario (rates remain unchanged) has risen to 40-45%. – A total 75-100 bp cut by the end of 2026 is priced in, meaning the expectation of "aggressive easing" has been significantly tempered.
What will be the impact on the crypto front? Past FOMC minutes have shown us this: When a dovish tone is present, we experience rapid pumps in BTC and altcoins, while when hawkish signals are present, we experience sharp selling. While BTC has been consolidating in the $92K-$96K range in recent weeks, the language in the minutes will be decisive: ✅ If the minutes say "inflation risk remains high, let's not rush" → the risk of a rapid correction to BTC below $90K, or even $85-88K, increases. ✅ If the tone of "the labor market is weakening, we can make another cut" prevails → $100K+ is back on the table, with ETH and major alts potentially jumping 10-20%.