#稳定币市场波动 Looking back, the ups and downs of the stablecoin market seem like they were just yesterday. From the emergence of Tether in 2014 to the current discussions among Fed officials about its impact on monetary policy, the changes that have occurred in just ten years are astonishing. Back then, we were worried about whether stablecoins could hold above, but now they have become a force that shakes the TradFi system.

The views of Fed Governor Milan have prompted me to reflect deeply. He mentioned that the expansion of stablecoin scale could lower the neutral interest rate, which aligns with the trends I have observed over the years. Looking back at the crypto bear market in 2018, stablecoins played a safe haven role, driving market liquidity. Today, they have become a bridge connecting TradFi and the digital economy.

Milan emphasized that the policy rate should be lowered along with the neutral rate, which reminds me of the unconventional monetary policy after the 2008 financial crisis. History is always remarkably similar, yet each time is different. Back then it was to respond to the crisis, while today it is to adapt to the changes brought about by emerging financial instruments.

However, we must also be wary of excessive optimism. The stablecoin market has experienced turmoil such as the collapse of Terra/LUNA, which provided profound lessons. The tightening of regulatory policies, such as requiring 1:1 reserves, will undoubtedly affect the expansion rate of stablecoins. This may help balance the impact on the neutral interest rate mentioned by Milan.

Looking to the future, the interaction between stablecoins and traditional monetary policy will become increasingly close. As witnesses and participants, we have the responsibility to learn from historical lessons and promote the healthy development of this innovative tool. After all, no matter how technology advances, the essence of finance remains the management and balance of risk.