#美国结束政府停摆. With the U.S. government having successfully resolved its recent shutdown crisis, global markets briefly regained a sense of stability. Yet Bitcoin remains under notable pressure, currently trading below its 365-day moving average, a level many institutions view as a critical indicator of long-term trend support. Whether Bitcoin can reclaim this threshold will play a pivotal role in shaping its medium-term direction: regaining it could signal renewed stabilization, while remaining suppressed may lead to a deeper adjustment similar to the mid-cycle correction of September 2021.

Market sentiment reflects these tensions. The Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 15, placing it firmly within a zone historically associated with “deep washouts in the middle of a bull market.” This suggests that while fear is elevated, it may not represent a structural trend reversal. More often, such extreme sentiment resets have preceded stronger and more sustainable upward moves, particularly when broader cycle conditions remain intact.

Looking ahead, macroeconomic factors could reinforce Bitcoin’s medium- to long-term trajectory. As economic growth and employment indicators continue to slow, the Federal Reserve may enter a clearer interest rate–cutting cycle between 2026 and 2027, providing more substantial monetary easing. This type of environment has reliably benefited risk assets, including Bitcoin, which reacts strongly to shifts in global liquidity.

Institutional dynamics could further amplify this effect. ETF inflows—especially from pensions, sovereign funds, and large asset managers often referred to as “long money”—tend to strengthen during periods of rate cuts. As yields in traditional fixed-income markets decline, institutions increasingly diversify into alternative assets, creating stronger and more persistent demand for Bitcoin.

Additionally, historical cycle patterns support the idea that Bitcoin remains within a broader bullish structure. The second year following each halving event (2013, 2017, 2021) has consistently produced new all-time highs, driven by supply reduction and delayed demand expansion. With this cycle’s timeline aligning closely with past behavior, the current correction appears more consistent with a deep mid-cycle reset than with a full trend reversal.

Although volatility remains elevated and uncertainties persist—from global liquidity fluctuations to macro policy shifts and institutional allocation behavior—the broader medium- to long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains constructive. The current pullback looks less like the end of a cycle and more like an important cleansing phase before the next major wave of upside momentum.