#美国政府停运 ETH is currently priced at $3,569, having retraced approximately 1.8% over the past day. From the 4-hour chart, this wave of market movement is quite interesting.

Let's start with key levels. Support is at around 3,495, with resistance near 3,647. Overall, the market is mainly consolidating, but the bulls still hold a slight advantage.

Technically, the moving average system shows that MA5 and MA10 are almost overlapping at 3,563 and 3,572 respectively, with the price staying above the MA20 at 3,492. However, don't get too optimistic yet—the MA120 is still pressing down at 3,743, indicating significant resistance overhead in the long term.

Regarding MACD, the DIF is at 35.27, DEA at 22.96, with the histogram showing a positive value of 12.30. This suggests that the bulls are still exerting strength, but momentum may be weakening. The Bollinger Bands indicate the price is between the middle and upper bands, with a %B of 0.72%, indicating activity in the upper half, so the bulls currently have the upper hand.

The RSI indicator is relatively neutral, with RSI6 at 58.27 and RSI14 at 57.09, showing no overbought or oversold conditions, and market sentiment remains stable. However, the KDJ indicator shows some caution—K at 58.43 and D at 67.34 form a death cross, and J has dropped to 40.61, suggesting a potential short-term correction.

Market funds should also be noted: the funding rate is at 0.004148%, indicating a relatively balanced long-short stance. However, trading volume has significantly decreased, with the latest 4-hour volume at only 916.775 ETH, reflecting a cautious market atmosphere. The net outflow of contracts over 4 hours is $134 million, while over 6 hours, there is a net inflow of $225 million, indicating market hesitation. Spot trading shows a 4-hour outflow of $31.65 million, with profit-taking pressure evident.

Personally, I lean towards cautious bullishness. If the price retraces to the 3550–3570 range, consider entering in parts. A breakout above 3590 would be a more reliable entry point for long positions. Stop-loss is suggested at around 3480 (roughly 3% risk). For targets, first take profit at 3680 (about 3% gain), and a second at 3750 (around 5% gain).

Honestly, this is a critical level. Whether the 3650 resistance can be broken will determine the next move. If it falls below 3520, a reassessment is necessary. Remember: strictly control your position size and avoid risking everything on a single trade.

Disclaimer: The above is solely personal opinion and does not constitute any investment advice. Profit and loss are your own responsibility.