#美停摆危机或将结束？ Crisis averted, bull run restarted?

On November 9, 2025, the U.S. Senate passed a continuing resolution by a vote of 60 to 40, marking the official countdown to the end of a record 40-day government shutdown. As the news broke, global risk assets celebrated collectively: Bitcoin surged 8% in a single day, briefly breaking through the $106,400 mark, Ethereum stabilized above $3,600, and the crypto market's 24-hour trading volume skyrocketed by 42% to $380 billion.
The market movement triggered by the easing of the political deadlock is essentially a concentrated response from the market to the release of liquidity and the recovery of risk appetite. However, behind the euphoria, is it a short-term emotional repair or a long-term trend reversal? This article dissects the core answers from three dimensions: transmission logic, market performance, and subsequent risks.

1. The core benefits of ending the halt:
1 trillion liquidity + risk appetite recovery
1. Key details to break the deadlock: The market stabilizer behind the compromise
Core content of the agreement: The Senate passed a "temporary funding + long-term budget" combination plan, extending government funding until January 30, 2026, while also including full-year funding bills for key agencies such as the Department of Agriculture and the Department of Veterans Affairs.
Key compromise: Rescind 4,000 federal employee layoff notices during the shutdown, compensate 750,000 employees who were forced to take leave (retroactive to September 30), and commit to a separate vote in December on the extension of healthcare subsidies;
Political logic: With Thanksgiving approaching (the fourth Thursday of November), social crises such as flight delays and food stamp shortages force both parties to make concessions. The Republican Party needs to avoid negative impacts from the elections, while the Democratic Party seeks short-term compromises in exchange for opportunities to negotiate healthcare.
2. Three major conduits: How will the end of the standstill ignite the crypto market?
(1) Liquidity Release: 1 trillion TGA funds 'quenching thirst' during market stagnation. The U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) has accumulated 1 trillion dollars in cash that cannot be spent, coupled with the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction, leading to a continuous tightening of liquidity in the money market. As the government resumes operations: TGA balance will gradually decline, and it is expected to release 500 to 700 billion dollars in liquidity over the next 1-2 months, which will flow directly into risk asset pools; Dongwu Securities estimates that the improvement in liquidity will drive a 3%-5% increase in risk asset valuations. As cryptocurrencies are high-elasticity varieties, their gains are usually 2-3 times that of traditional assets. (2) Risk Appetite Recovery: Funds shifting from 'safe-haven' to 'seeking profit.' During the 40-day stagnation, the market was shrouded in political uncertainty, and a large amount of funds were hoarded in cash and low-risk assets like short-term government bonds. The cryptocurrency market ETF saw a net outflow of over 1.2 billion dollars for three consecutive weeks. After the deadlock was broken: The Fear Index (VIX) fell 18% in one day to 16.2, hitting a new low since the stagnation, and risk appetite has significantly rebounded; on-chain data shows that within 24 hours after the stagnation ended, the net inflow of Bitcoin on exchanges plummeted by 60%, and whale addresses (holding 1000+ BTC) increased their holdings by 128 coins, confirming that funds shifted from 'selling out' to 'holding coins for appreciation.'
(3) Strengthened expectations for interest rate cuts: The probability of the Federal Reserve's policy easing has increased, and the government shutdown has led to a serious deterioration in U.S. economic data: The November Consumer Confidence Index fell to 50.3 (a month-on-month drop of 3.3), hitting a two-year low, and key economic data (such as non-farm payrolls) are missing, constraining the Federal Reserve's policy judgment. Market expectations: CME's "FedWatch" shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has risen to 66.5%, an increase of 23 percentage points compared to before the shutdown; Bitcoin is negatively correlated with real interest rates at -0.72, and the expectation of interest rate cuts lowers holding costs, further attracting funds into the market.
2. Overview of the Recovery in the Crypto Market: BTC Leads the Charge, Capital Flow Reveals Trends
1. Core asset performance: BTC/ETH leads, altcoins diverge
24-hour asset price change percentage highest price trading volume change key drivers Bitcoin (BTC) 8.2% $106,400 +48% liquidity sensitive + halving expectations Ethereum (ETH) 4.5% $3,620 +35% staking yield attractiveness after the merge Solana (SOL) 12.3% $189 +72% ecosystem project implementation + funds rotation stablecoin (USDT) 0.1% $1.0002 +28% capital inflow reserve data source: CoinGecko, Glassnode (2025.11.10)

2. Capital flow characteristics: dominated by institutions, ETFs become key channels. ETF capital inflow: mainstream ETFs such as BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC saw a net inflow of over 800 million USD in a single day, a 300% surge compared to the previous day, as institutions leverage liquidity easing to position for the halving market.
On-chain fund transfer: Exchange balances decreased by 12,000 BTC (worth 12.7 billion USD) in a single day, with 60% transferred to long-term holding addresses (holding period over 1 year), and the proportion of short-term speculative funds decreased to 28%;
Derivatives Market: Bitcoin open interest increased by 15%, with a long/short ratio rising to 1.8, confirming a bullish sentiment in the market. However, the perpetual contract funding rate remains at 0.01%, showing no signs of excessive leveraged speculation.
3. Linked to traditional assets: Risk assets are strengthening in sync, with gold "unusually" rising alongside the U.S. stock market, with Nasdaq futures up 0.8% and S&P 500 futures up 0.5%, creating a risk appetite resonance with the crypto market; gold has broken through $4049 per ounce (an increase of 1.2%), presenting a spectacle of "safe haven + risk assets rising together" — the core reason is that the market is betting on liquidity easing while also worrying that the bipartisan conflict has not been fundamentally resolved (potentially leading to another shutdown in January next year), and funds are adopting a "two-way hedging" strategy.
3. Key Controversy: How long can the recovery last?
Three major risks hide deadly threats.
1. Short-term positive developments: Liquidity release or "flash in the pan" TGA fund release is concentrated in November to December, and after January 30 next year, there will be another round of funding negotiations. If the two parties still cannot reach an agreement on healthcare subsidies, it may trigger a new round of political deadlock; the current gains in the crypto market have partially anticipated the liquidity benefits, and if subsequent capital inflows fall short of expectations, BTC may experience fluctuations in the range of $105,000 to $110,000.
2. Core risks remain: Regulatory uncertainty and the halving expectation game. Regulatory uncertainty: The U.S. SEC is still advancing rules for the classification of crypto assets, with a hearing on whether ETH will be defined as a security scheduled for December, which may trigger market volatility; Diminishing marginal effects of halving: After the 2024 halving, Bitcoin's annual inflation rate will drop to 0.85%, and the scarcity premium has been partially priced in, requiring more incremental capital support for further increases (e.g., expansion of ETF sizes).
3. Technical pressure: BTC faces key resistance levels. On a daily chart, the range of 106,000 to 110,000 USD is a dense area of previous highs, and trading volume has not significantly increased (still 25% lower than historical peaks). A breakout requires stronger capital support; the RSI indicator has risen to 68, approaching the overbought zone (70), increasing the risk of a short-term pullback.

Conclusion: In the feast of liquidity, rationally view the "short-term warming".
The end of the U.S. government shutdown has triggered a surge in the cryptocurrency market, essentially a triple resonance of "political risk alleviation + liquidity release + interest rate cut expectations," representing a short-term emotional recovery rather than a trend reversal driven by fundamentals. The current market benefits from a timely boost of $1 trillion in liquidity but also faces potential risks such as the funding negotiations in January and regulatory policies.
For investors, it is important to seize the "liquidity window" while remaining cautious:
Long-term borrowing can be arranged for the halving market correction, while in the short term, vigilance is needed against resistance level pullback pressure to avoid being swept up by "euphoric sentiment". Key observation points moving forward include: TGA capital release rhythm, ETF capital sustainability, and the Federal Reserve's December policy statement. Only with the resonance of these three factors can the crypto market transition from "short-term warming" to "long-term bull run".