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Fed official Williams recently revealed that they are preparing to restart the bond buying program.
Don't get me wrong, this is not the kind of emergency liquidity injection from 2020. Williams made it very clear - this time it's a "technical operation" aimed at maintaining market liquidity, rather than stimulating economic growth. In plain language: the Fed has noticed that market cash is a bit tight and wants to slowly add water to the pool, but will absolutely not let it overflow.
Is this a boon or a trap for the cryptocurrency market?
In the short term, the outlook is positive. The logic is simple: the Fed buying bonds means an increase in the supply of base money, and some funds will seek higher-yielding outlets. Risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum have always been extremely sensitive to changes in liquidity. The interest rate hike cycle over the past year has put significant pressure on the entire crypto market, and now, even a slight easing at the expectation level due to a policy shift will clearly improve market sentiment.
But there is a key turning point here - Williams emphasized that "this is not a stimulus policy." What does that mean? It means don't expect a violent surge like in 2021. This time it's more like an infusion for the market to maintain basic operations, rather than injecting adrenaline to get you high.
What do I think personally? This operation is like boiling a frog in warm water; it won't boil instantly, but the temperature is indeed slowly rising.
Where are the opportunities? Under the expectation of liquidity easing, mainstream currencies may react in advance. If you start positioning BTC, ETH, and other low-position assets before the first quarter of next year, you might be able to reap the expected dividends.
Where is the risk? The most common mistake retail investors make is blindly chasing highs. Once the Fed slows down its pace (which is highly likely), the market may change direction in an instant. You think it's the starting point of a bull market, but it turns out to be just a temporary rebound.
What should ordinary investors do?
First, invest in core assets systematically. For Bitcoin and Ethereum, accumulate in batches, don't go all in at once. The market will give you opportunities to enter gradually, so don't rush.
Second, keep an eye on the repurchase rate. If SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) continues to decline, it indicates that the cost of borrowing dollars is really decreasing and liquidity is indeed easing. At this point, the signal to increase positions will be stronger.
Third, keep cash on hand. Only when the market truly falls can you have the bullets to buy the dip. Never put all your chips on one point in time.
How long can the Fed's "gentle easing" support the crypto world this time? No one can accurately predict. But one thing is certain: opportunities are always reserved for those who are prepared. Have you figured out your next step?