On November 7, several major Wall Street banks simultaneously issued warnings: the tension in the US money market may resurface. Although short-term financing rates seem to have stabilized, the spread between repo rates and reserve rates remains ridiculously high—this indicates that money in the market is not as abundant as it appears. Some analysts believe that if this situation continues, the Fed may have to resort to printing money again to prevent the reserves of the financial system from falling below a dangerous line.

Meanwhile, JPMorgan's latest report provides an interesting conclusion: after experiencing this round of deleveraging storm, Bitcoin has almost cleaned up its excessively leveraged positions. Their strategist Panigirtzoglou pointed out that the open interest ratio of perpetual contracts has dropped to the average level at the beginning of the year, which means that the short-term selling pressure has basically ended. More importantly, from a volatility-adjusted perspective, Bitcoin is now "unusually cheap" compared to gold - there may be significant upside potential in the next six months to a year.

From the perspective of market observers, the current contradictions are quite subtle: if the Fed is indeed forced to restart quantitative easing, the valuation of risk assets is likely to undergo a wave of recovery. For the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin has just completed deleveraging and is now facing a potential shift in policy expectations, with a structural rebound brewing. Technically, short-term support is around $100,500, and the upper pressure zone is between $103,500 and $104,500. Once policy signals clearly shift, funds are likely to switch from risk-averse mode back to risk preference, which may mark the starting point of a new round of liquidity repricing.