When the stock market is climbing steadily, the Central Bank suddenly opens the floodgates for point shaving—doesn't this operation seem a bit off? Ray Dalio from Bridgewater Associates recently sounded the alarm on social media. He said that the Fed has stopped quantitative tightening and switched to quantitative easing, officially labeled as a "technical adjustment," but it may actually be laying the groundwork for the next round of debt crisis.

Dalio specifically talks about this in his new book "How Countries Go Broke: Big Cycles." The statement from Fed Chairman Powell is to "gradually increase reserves" to accommodate the expansion of the banking system, which sounds quite normal. The problem is, what is the situation now? Interest rates are going down, and the government fiscal deficit has become enormous. With the Fed and the Treasury working together like this, it could very well turn into using printed money to pay off debts.

Take another look at the market data: the stock market is swaying at historical highs, credit spreads are pitifully low, the unemployment rate is only 4.3%, and inflation is still stuck above 3%. According to Dalio's bubble indicator, AI concept stocks are already very dangerous. At such times, injecting liquidity into the market is a standard "point shaving" play.

Dalio asked directly: Is this really just a technical adjustment? The current political atmosphere is about loosening regulations and encouraging capital expansion, but the debt hole is getting bigger, and the supply and demand relationship of government bonds is already very tight. With these signals coming together, investors should be more vigilant.