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Last night's brake nearly caused the market to flip.
Federal Reserve official Goolsbee threw out a remark that "the data is not enough to support an early rate cut," leading to a plunge in gold, U.S. stocks, and cryptocurrencies—all at once. BTC, ETH, and BNB collectively nosedived from their highs as if they had coordinated, and contract longs were wiped out overnight.
Do you think it was just a false alarm? Look at these numbers:
Gold has directly breached the 4000 mark, and silver and crude oil are following in free fall; the Nasdaq dropped over 1% within an hour, AMD plummeted 6%, and the S&P 500 lost 5%, with Meta, Nvidia, and Tesla not escaping either.
Even more magical is the gold ETF - which has just set a record of attracting $8.2 billion over the past five months, with daily trading reaching a historical high of 561 billion. As a result, it was brought back to reality by a statement from the Federal Reserve. At this position, do you dare to bottom fish? Or are you waiting to catch an even bigger knife?
There is more than one minefield:
First, let's look at the employment data—October saw a 175% surge in corporate layoffs, with non-farm jobs unexpectedly decreasing by 9,100, causing a sudden crack in the job market;
Looking at the government shutdown for 37 days, key inflation data has directly gone "dark", the Federal Reserve is now like a blindfolded pilot flying a plane, interest rate cuts in December? What is there to bet on?
The market is currently betting on a 71% probability of a rate cut in December, but Cleveland Fed's Harker has already stated: "Inflation may remain stubborn until 2026."
The bulls and bears are now at each other's throats. Do you dare to catch this falling knife of gold? Is the U.S. stock market a bottom-fishing opportunity or just halfway up the mountain? In the crypto market, is this pullback just a shakeout or a trend reversal?
I'll just take a look first and then talk.