In-depth analysis of the reasons for the US government shutdown.

The U.S. government shutdown that began on October 1, 2025, has lasted for 37 days, becoming the longest shutdown in history. The core reason for this shutdown is Congress's failure to reach a consensus on the federal budget, resulting in a lack of funding support for parts of the government after the continuing resolution (CR) for the previous fiscal year expired. Specifically, Congress needed to pass 12 annual appropriation bills or a temporary CR before September 30 to maintain operations, but the Republican and Democratic parties were deadlocked on key issues, including the scale of healthcare spending and priority allocation. The Republican-led House of Representatives attempted to push for significant cuts to the healthcare benefits system (such as terminating enhanced subsidies through the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act"), while the Democrats insisted on maintaining these programs, leading to both parties' proposals being rejected in the Senate.

From a depth perspective, this shutdown is not merely a budget dispute, but rather reflects deeper political divisions. The Trump administration took radical measures during the shutdown, such as mass layoffs (over 4,000 federal employees have been fired), refusing to pay back wages, and even canceling some federal funding projects, which exacerbated tensions. Additionally, the constitutional power of appropriations became a focal point: the executive branch was accused of withholding congressionally approved funds, violating the Impoundment Control Act, further intensifying partisan conflict. Economic factors also played a role, with high inflation and debt ceiling pressures making Republicans more inclined toward fiscal tightening, while Democrats emphasized the necessity of social welfare. Historical data shows that the U.S. has experienced 22 shutdowns since 1976, often stemming from similar partisan games, but the 2025 shutdown is more destructive due to the Trump administration's intentions of "remodeling" (such as restructuring the research system).

Later impact

The impact of the shutdown has expanded from short-term interruptions to long-term economic and social consequences. In the short term, about 800,000 federal employees were placed on unpaid leave or forced to work, leading to a surge in unemployment applications (such as the spike in applications from federal workers in Colorado). National parks, museums, and airport traffic were disrupted, with reduced air traffic at 40 airports, affecting tourism and logistics. Welfare programs such as SNAP (food stamps) and WIC (Women, Infants, and Children) faced funding interruptions, putting millions of low-income families at risk of hunger.

Long-term impacts are more severe: economic losses have reached hundreds of billions of dollars, and it is estimated that for each week of extension, the GDP growth rate declines by 0.1-0.2%. Disruptions in the fields of science and research are serious, with federal-funded projects on hold, potentially delaying innovation and technological advancements. The impact on state budgets is significant, as many states rely on federal funds to operate healthcare and education, and the shutdown leads to a ripple effect such as rising local unemployment rates. Military personnel continue to work but face delayed pay, affecting morale. Overall, this shutdown has strengthened the public's trust crisis in the government, which may amplify partisan divisions in the 2026 midterm elections.

Expected resolution time
As of November 6, the shutdown has entered its 37th day, with no clear end date, but pressure is forcing both parties to negotiate. Some senators predict a deal could be reached this week to pass a temporary CR extending funding to December or next year. Historical experience shows that the longest shutdown (34 days in 2018-2019) ended under public pressure and economic losses, and this time is similar: with the election season approaching and the Thanksgiving holiday, Congress may compromise before mid-November. If delays occur, it is expected to last until at least the end of December, as the approaching debt ceiling will force action. The White House's "shutdown clock" tool indicates that Democratic demands are a key obstacle, but bipartisan negotiations have begun.
Relation to Global Warfare
The direct correlation between the shutdown and global wars (such as in Ukraine, Gaza, or potential conflicts in Venezuela) is limited, mainly having indirect effects. Domestic political divisions weaken the United States' diplomatic capabilities: during the shutdown, freezing federal funds may delay military assistance to allies, affecting the U.S. role in global conflicts. For example, the Senate is voting to halt unauthorized military actions against Venezuela, which overlaps with budget priorities in shutdown negotiations — the Republicans tend to favor reducing overseas spending and shifting towards domestic austerity. More broadly, the shutdown exposes the weaknesses in U.S. governance, undermining its credibility on the international stage: economic losses and internal chaos may allow adversaries (like Russia or Iran) to exploit the gaps, promoting global instability. However, there is no evidence that global wars directly trigger shutdowns; rather, it is a result of domestic partisan struggles, but may amplify geopolitical risks, such as delayed defense budgets affecting deployments in the Indo-Pacific or the Middle East.
The impact of #美国政府停摆 # on Bitcoin