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Historical data reveals astonishing patterns! November may be the eve of a big pump for Crypto Assets, with five reasons from Tom Lee's team proving that the bull run is still on.
Recently, the debate in the market over whether Crypto Assets have peaked has intensified, but Mark Newton, an analyst from the fund of well-known Wall Street analyst Tom Lee, recently pointed out that the current market is far from reaching its peak. Looking at historical data, November is often the "highlight moment" for Bitcoin and Ethereum, and this trend may provide important support for the market ahead.
1. Five Technical Reasons to Refute the "Top Theory"
Mark Newton presents five major counterarguments through detailed technical analysis:
1. The Elliott Wave structure has not shown any signs of a peak, indicating that the price trend still conforms to an upward wave pattern;
2. The monthly DeMark indicator has not triggered a peak signal, lacking quantitative evidence for a trend reversal;
3. The MACD indicator turning negative originates from sideways consolidation, rather than a trend breakdown, and there is no confirmation of a five-wave decline;
4. The medium-term trend has not been broken since 2022, and the pattern of continuous higher highs and lows remains solid;
5. Market sentiment has not yet reached historical peak levels, and the greed index remains within a reasonable range.
2. Historical data from November suggests potential rise momentum.
Coinglass shows that Crypto Assets often perform strongly in November:
Bitcoin: Since 2013, the average return rate in November has reached 42.49%, with a median of 8.81%, and there have been 8 rises in 12 years; Ethereum: Since 2016, the average return rate in November is 7.08%, with a median of 3.94%, and there have been 5 rises in 9 years. This seasonal pattern resonates with the current technical aspects, which may strengthen the market's optimistic expectations for the year-end trend.
Conclusion: Dual support from trends and cycles, the logic of the bull run still exists.
Despite short-term market volatility, there are no definitive signals of a peak from a technical perspective. Coupled with historical performance in November, investors may remain cautiously optimistic. As Mark Newton stated: "Market sentiment is far from reaching a substantive peak level." The current fluctuations may present an opportunity for positioning rather than a signal to exit. #打榜优质内容