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The "peak theory" has been denied, does the crypto market still have upward potential?
Recently, there has been ongoing discussion in the market about "cryptocurrency has peaked," especially against the backdrop of Bitcoin's repeated attempts to break new highs and the sideways fluctuations of mainstream coins. Some investors have begun to question whether this round of the upward cycle has reached its end. In response, Mark Newton, the head of technical strategy at Tom Lee's Fundstrat, provided a different perspective on social platform X—he believes that there are currently no technical signs of a "peak" in the market.
Newton pointed out in the analysis that from the perspective of multiple technical indicators, the crypto market is still in a medium-term upward trend and has not yet entered a systemic correction phase.
First of all, from the perspective of the Elliott Wave structure, the current trend does not show a complete top formation. In other words, the current price range still belongs to the mid-to-late stage of the upward wave and has not yet entered the adjustment wave phase.
Secondly, he mentioned that the DeMark indicator (a professional tool for measuring market overbought and oversold conditions) has not issued a top signal on the monthly level. According to past experience, this signal usually appears when the market reaches a temporary high point, and currently, the market has not reached this threshold.
Thirdly, Newton believes that the recent negative MACD indicator in the market is more of a technical fluctuation caused by sideways consolidation, and is not sufficient to prove a trend reversal. Compared to short-term fluctuations, he is more concerned about the continuation of longer-term trends.
The fourth reason is the integrity of the medium-term trend. Since the end of 2022, the crypto market has maintained an upward channel structure, and the main support level has not been broken, indicating that the medium-term upward trend remains stable.
Finally, he emphasized that the current market sentiment is still far from reaching the "extreme optimism" stage seen before the peaks of previous bull markets. The investors' vigilance towards high position risks and their wait-and-see attitude instead confirm that the market has not yet entered the overheated zone.
Newton added that he is closely monitoring the bottom confirmation signals of Ethereum (ETH) and Bitcoin (BTC). Once the technical indicators stabilize further, a new round of technical upward opportunities may arise.
Conclusion
In a phase where the macro environment remains uncertain and market divergences intensify, Fundstrat's viewpoint undoubtedly provides the market with another interpretative perspective. The technical indicators have not shown any signs of a peak, and the sentiment has not reached an extreme high point — this suggests that the story of the crypto market may not be over yet.