#美联储货币政策预期 Recently, I have Followed new developments in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy expectations. It seems the possibility of reducing the balance sheet in October is increasing, which could have a significant impact on the Marketplace. Signs of funding pressure have appeared in the repurchase agreement market, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to announce the end of balance sheet reduction next week. Chairman Powell has previously hinted at waiting for the right timing to end the balance sheet reduction, and now that timing may have arrived.

From a follow perspective, this policy shift often triggers Fluctuation in the Marketplace and presents rare trading opportunities. I plan to closely monitor a few skilled traders who excel at adapting to policy changes to see how they position themselves. However, I also remind myself to stay calm, as the effects of policy changes often take time to be fully reflected in the Marketplace.

Overall, I lean towards cautious optimism. If the Federal Reserve truly shifts to a neutral policy stance, with short-term government debt supplies decreasing by about $20 billion each month, it would be favourable information for both bonds and stocks. But the specific approach will depend on how the expert traders interpret and position themselves. Practice makes perfect—let’s wait and see.