Powell just dropped a heavy statement!!! The October Fed meeting has a "big surprise" hidden for the end of the year?

Today, let's continue to talk about the Fed. The market generally judges that the Fed will not provide a clear signal regarding a rate hike in December at the October meeting. For example, Goldman Sachs has analyzed that if asked at the press conference, Powell is likely to refer to the dot plot released in September— that chart has actually hinted that a third rate cut may come in December this year.

Other major banks, such as Bank of America and ANZ, also share similar views, expecting Powell to still play the "cautious card" this time, emphasizing that he will "look at the data one meeting at a time" and will not prematurely lock in future policy paths. Deutsche Bank and ING also mentioned that he is likely to continue maintaining policy flexibility and will not easily make specific commitments regarding actions at the end of the year.

In my personal view, it is indeed difficult to calculate the current employment and inflation figures in the United States. Take the employment data for example; the recent slowdown is related not only to economic factors but also to the tightening of immigration policies. Therefore, the Fed must weigh each step carefully, fearing to misstep. As Generali Investments puts it, this rate cut feels more like a "risk management" measure rather than indicating the firm start of a rate-cutting cycle.

Speaking of my opinion, I believe that the Fed's upcoming policy direction will largely still depend on "watching the data's complexion." Some institutions have analyzed that after possibly cutting interest rates twice more this year, the Fed will pause its actions and enter a period of observation, and it may not consider the next steps until 2026. This also reflects the complexity of the current macro environment, and decisions cannot be rushed.

In summary, the word "stability" is paramount, and we will proceed while observing; this is the most realistic state of the Fed at present.