ETH showdown at $4000! 72 hours before the Fed lowers interest rates, ultimate guide for retail investors to survive + lying in ambush.

With only 72 hours left until the Fed's interest rate decision, ETH is caught at the critical level of 4000 dollars, where a final showdown between bulls and bears is taking place. On one side, the capital game between institutions and whales is intensifying, while on the other, retail investors are panicking amid the violent fluctuations—how can one avoid the liquidation trap while accurately lying in ambush for market turning points? This practical guide will help you clarify your thoughts and maintain control in this chaotic situation.



Current situation: "Deadly wash trading under the divergence of long and short positions"



The recent trend of ETH can be described as a "roller coaster ride": it suddenly plummeted from a high of $4200 to $4000, causing many retail investors who had set buy orders at $4000 to miss their trades, and in a panic, they ended up making mistakes. But experienced players understand that this kind of "precise missed orders at key levels" is a common tactic used by the main players to wash out the market—first smashing the price to scare off following retail investors, and then quietly accumulating during the panic.



The divergence in capital flows appears even more bizarre:



- Giant whales are secretly bottom-fishing: addresses holding 10,000-100,000 ETH have recently increased their holdings to 310,000 ETH, approaching historical highs, clearly laying out their strategy amid the fluctuations;

​

- Institutional short-term withdrawal: Last week, institutional investors sold $243 million worth of ETH, and the short-term selling pressure has intensified the market chaos.



This kind of "institution selling, whales buying" split market appears to be fraught with crisis, but in fact, it hides opportunities for picking up bargains—just avoid the short-term volatility noise and anchor on key support levels, and you can share in the spoils of the big players' game.



Fed "ultimate bomb": direction set Thursday morning



The core contradiction of this interest rate meeting lies in the "expectation gap": the market suddenly shifted to pricing a 50 basis point rate cut in December, far exceeding the previous general expectation of 25 basis points, and this sentiment has already stirred the crypto market in advance.



But experienced players are well aware of an iron rule: when interest rate cut expectations materialize, it is often a reversal point of "good news already priced in." Funds that have positioned themselves in advance are likely to take profits after the announcement, leading to reverse fluctuations in the market. It's crucial to remember key points: from Monday to Wednesday, random operations are strictly prohibited, and the true trend direction will only become clear after the rate decision early Thursday morning.



72-hour battle plan: Protecting the principal is winning.



Monday to Wednesday (before the meeting): maintain a light position and wait, place precise orders.



- Long strategy: Build long positions in batches in the 4080-4100 USD range, where it serves as both the support of the middle band of the Bollinger Bands and the starting point of the previous rebound, ensuring maximum safety;

​

- Stop-loss setting: The stop-loss must be placed below $3840. Once it breaks, it indicates that the short-term rebound logic has completely failed, and one should exit immediately to avoid deep losses.

​

- Profit-taking rhythm: When the price rises to the 4200-4300 range, regardless of how much profit you have, you must gradually take profits and refuse to be greedy.



Absolutely prohibited high-risk operation

Buy above 4200 dollars: has approached short-term strong resistance, easily trapped at the phase high point;

​

Blindly shorting at any position: Currently, there is a sharp divergence between bulls and bears, and shorting could be countered at any time by whales bottom-fishing. Consider making a decision after the direction is clear on Thursday.



Key technical levels: follow the chart to avoid pitfalls



- Strong support levels: $3920-3880 (short-term buffer zone), $3840 (life and death stop-loss line), $3600-3400 (long-term golden layout area);

​

- Strong resistance levels: $4200 (first resistance level), $4300-$4400 (short-term high point range).



Current technical signals to focus on: Although the MACD shows a golden cross, momentum continues to weaken; the RSI indicator reports 46.9, in the neutral zone, indicating that short-term fluctuations will continue. The core points to watch are two: first, whether it can stabilize above $3990, and second, whether it can hold 3 four-hour candlesticks after breaking through $4220—the latter is the real trend reversal signal.



Ultimate Mastery for Veterans: 3 Principles for Surviving in a Volatile Market



1. Position management is the bottom line: The position before the meeting must not exceed 10%, and it should be built in batches, adding to the position every time it drops by 50 dollars, completely avoiding being lying in ambush with a full position all at once;

​

2. Emotional control is key: Don't watch the market all day long, set price alerts (e.g., alert for stop loss if it falls below $3840), refuse the FOMO mentality, it's better to miss out than to make a mistake;

​

3. On-chain data must be closely monitored: track the movements of whale addresses through Glassnode, while also paying attention to the ETH reserves of exchanges.



Final reminder: The long-term trend of ETH remains healthy, and the 3400-3600 range is still a worthwhile long-term investment zone. What should be done now is not to chase the highs and sell the lows, but to preserve the principal—wait for the direction to be clarified on Thursday, and there will be certain opportunities to earn it back. #十月加密市场预测