ETH October 18 Market Analysis Daily

1. Key Signal Analysis

1. Price and EMA Trend:

◦ The current price (3865.85) is below all short-term EMAs (EMA5/10/30/72 are all in the 3927-4183 range), indicating a bearish short-term trend, but the price has rebounded from the low of 3275, showing that there is buying support below.

◦ Key support: EMA180 (3619.73) and the previous low of 3275 form a strong support zone; if this area is broken, it may open up downside potential.

◦ Key resistance: EMA72 (4112.96) and EMA30 (4183.73) form recent pressure, and a significant breakout is needed to reverse the short-term downtrend.

2. MACD Indicator:

◦ The MACD value (45.35) is positive, but the DIF (-115.9) is still below the DEA (-70.55), indicating a bearish zone; however, the narrowing negative difference suggests that the downward momentum is weakening.

◦ If DIF crosses above DEA to form a golden cross, it may trigger a short-term rebound.

3. Trading Volume and Market Sentiment:

◦ Recent rebound accompanied by a moderate increase in trading volume indicates that some funds are entering at lower levels, but overall trading volume has not significantly increased, so caution is needed regarding the sustainability of the rebound.

2. Trend Prediction

• Short-term (1-3 days): The price is likely to fluctuate within the range of 3619-4112. If it holds above the EMA180 support, it may attempt to test the 4112 resistance again; if it breaks down with volume below 3619, it may revisit the low of 3275.

• Mid-term (1 week): Need to observe whether it can stabilize above EMA30 (above 4183). If it successfully breaks through, the target can be seen at 4562 (near the previous high); conversely, if it continues to be constrained by EMA72, the risk of a downward fluctuation increases.

3. Overall Rating and Operational Suggestions

• Rating: 6/10 (Neutral but Cautious)

(Rating Explanation: Below 5 points is bearish, 6-7 points is sideways, above 8 points is bullish)

• Key Logic:

◦ Positive factors: Price has moved away from lows, potential MACD divergence, effective support at EMA180.

◦ Risk factors: Bearish moving averages, overall insufficient volume, macroeconomic uncertainties (such as Bitcoin ETF capital flow, etc.).

• Operation Suggestions:

◦ Short-term: Buy low and sell high within the range (lightly buy around the support level near 3619, reduce position at the resistance level of 4112).

◦ Medium to long-term: Wait for a volume breakout above 4183 or follow the trend after a drop below 3619.

Note: The above analysis is based on static chart data. Actual trading should be assessed in conjunction with real-time market dynamics and macro events (such as Federal Reserve policies and Ethereum ecosystem updates).