Analyst: BTC whales are closer to position adjustments rather than large-scale withdrawals, as the expectation of leveraged liquidation and interest rate cuts still favors a positive outlook for the market at the end of the year.

On October 16, BRN research director Timothy Misir pointed out: “Bitcoin is testing the key support level of $110,000, accompanied by whales reducing their holdings and a surge in demand for put options. The volume of large put option trades has exceeded $1.15 billion, accounting for 28% of capital flow, while call options remain concentrated in the $115,000 to $130,000 range. This is a selective adjustment of positions, not panic selling.” He added that large investors holding 10,000 to 100,000 BTC have reduced their holdings by about 17,500 BTC, but have still been net buyers this year, accumulating over 318,000 BTC, which is more akin to position adjustment rather than large-scale withdrawal. 21Shares research strategist Matt Mena emphasized: “Bitcoin has demonstrated resilience amid macro headwinds and aggressive leverage, proving that the structural demand anchored by ETF inflows and dovish policy expectations is still supporting the market.” Over the past month, U.S. ETFs have attracted over $6 billion, and he noted that “as leverage is cleared and policy easing approaches, the outlook for the end of the year is becoming increasingly positive.” If institutional demand continues, Bitcoin is still expected to rise to $150,000. However, the short-term technical outlook remains weak: if it effectively breaks below $110,000, it may dip into the $104,000-$108,000 range; if it can reclaim $115,000, it will regain bullish momentum.