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The three-day trend of Ethereum shows significant uncertainty, leaning bearish in the short term but with a possibility of a rebound. Below is an analysis based on the existing information:
- Technical Analysis: Ethereum has fallen from a high of nearly $4300 to a low of $3510, and then partially rebounded to about $3830. The 4-hour chart shows that Ethereum has exited the descending channel. If it can hold the key resistance level, there may be room for a rebound in the short term. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recently rebounded from the oversold zone of 24, indicating that the downward momentum has slowed, and buying pressure is starting to return. Ethereum is currently hovering around the 23.6% retracement level of $3719 and is paying attention to the 38.2% to 50% retracement range of $3847-$3951.
- Market Sentiment Analysis: The open interest of Ethereum is rising while the price is falling, indicating that investors are opening new positions rather than closing existing ones, showing their confidence in a rebound in the future. However, the funding rate has turned negative, with shorts paying fees to longs, indicating a bearish market sentiment, with most traders betting that the price of Ethereum will decline further. However, when short positions become too crowded, it can trigger a "short squeeze," forcing bears to close positions passively, thus accelerating the price increase.
- Institutional View: Fundstrat Managing Director Mark Newton stated that Ethereum is expected to bottom out in the next 1 to 2 days, followed by a rebound, potentially dipping to $4200, which will become the best support area, after which Ethereum is expected to rise again.
It is important to note that the cryptocurrency market is highly uncertain and risky, and the above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.