After the big dump the night before last, I woke up in the morning to find that half of my positions had been liquidated. I then sighed that the other half of life’s fate is to regret not buying the dip. But in either case, we are actually living in a fantasy: I will definitely make it back next time. To be honest, the vast majority of people get liquidated because their positions are too heavy and they don't set stop losses. They always think Bitcoin is on a rising trend and is going to break through 130,000. Then, when there is a slight pullback, they heavy position buy in. To be honest, when most people think the black swan is over, it is very likely just beginning. And that long wick candle last night was not the end, but a warning. Bitcoin plunged from 126,000 to 101,500 in one go, and various alts directly fell 70% or even over 90%, all indicating that the most terrifying things are still brewing.

In fact, black swans never give early warnings. They always arrive suddenly when everyone is most relaxed and optimistic. This is the cruelest law of the crypto circle: when you think you are safe, that is when you are in the most danger. When you feel like everything is fine, you are often just one step away from a problem. Looking back at this market situation, it can be summed up in the simplest terms: many people thought this time was different, which is why we have such results. This time is different; there are interest rate cuts this time. This time is different; there is Trump this time. This time is different; the Federal Reserve is easing monetary policy this time. But I want to tell you, it is precisely because everyone thinks this way that the market is dangerous. The market does not rise based on logic; it rises based on emotions. Logic tells you a bull market is coming, but emotions are secretly building a bubble. The moment emotions reach their peak is the beginning of the main force's harvest. You think the big dump is an accident, but it is actually inevitable. Because essentially, this time's big dump is just the main players using Trump's news to crash the market. Even if there were no Trump, they would find other news to go down; it would just be a slower decline.
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