In the past couple of days, BTC has been rising continuously, but the Trading Volume has shrunk, and the momentum has weakened, reminding me of the false breakouts before the peak in 2021.

Short-term opportunities for low longs and high shorts coexist. Today I plan to reduce some spot holdings. The US stock market closed higher on Monday, and the daytime trend may be strong, but there is a high probability of a pullback in the afternoon, similar to the trend in November last year. After the pullback, I will go long, but I will definitely set a stop loss— the liquidation lesson from 2018 taught me that defense always comes first.

The market is hotly speculating that BTC will hit 150,000, but I am cautious. The four-year cycle pattern has never failed, and the past three rounds (2013, 2017, 2021) have verified this.

The upper band of the weekly Bollinger Bands is no longer expanding, MACD shows a high-level divergence. Combining with historical data, I judge that this round of high points has appeared.

In the next two months, BTC may experience high-level fluctuations, and in 3-4 months it could pull back to 86,000-77,000, similar to the consolidation from May to July 2021. I have started to position small short orders for the medium to long term, patiently waiting for the market to validate.

The key focus should be on ETH. The weekly MACD has formed a death cross, and the 5-day MACD is increasing in bearish momentum. After a rebound on the hourly chart, the outlook remains bearish, resembling the early bear market in June 2022. The hope for breaking through 5000 is slim, and if it effectively drops below 3600 (not a false breakout), the monthly MACD will confirm a bearish signal.

I see the next wave of bottom fishing at 2850-2520, based on Fibonacci retracement and historical support.