A Year Ago: A Review of Predictions for the Main Trends in the Encryption Industry

A year ago, the prediction regarding the main line of the encryption industry was partially accurate. Currently, the main and secondary directions of the industry are showing the following trends:

1. Stablecoins and the Tokenization of Real-World Assets ( RWA )

Several projects worth paying attention to in this field:

• A token from a stablecoin issuing company: Currently priced at about $135, considering the potential 5-8 times expansion of the stablecoin market in the next 5 years, and the recent pullback from $300 to $108, it may be a suitable entry opportunity.

• A certain stablecoin public chain project: As the only related investment target currently available, its financing scale, ecological construction, and community influence are all ahead of its competitors. After the mainnet launch, the total locked value (TVL) is expected to reach 3-4 billion USD. Although the current valuation of 6 billion USD is not cheap, considering that the stablecoin market may reach a trillion scale in the future, there is still considerable room for imagination.

• A certain decentralized stablecoin project: As a representative of the decentralized camp, its issued stablecoin has surpassed 13.5 billion USD. The project also involves centralized stablecoins and the tokenization of physical assets on public chains, with broad development prospects.

• A certain RWA project: Currently the only project that enables 24/7 trading of US stocks, without KYC requirements and backed by large institutions. If you are optimistic about the trend of borderless US stocks on the blockchain, this project is one of the few investment options.

2. AI Agent

The AI agent projects predicted last year, such as Goat and ai16Z, turned out to be short-lived and were confirmed to be just hype dressed in AI clothing. This year, there are indeed some AI agent projects with practical application value and potential product market fit, such as Skywork in the Web2 space, as well as HeyAnonai, Gizatech, Almanak, and ReiNetwork in the Web3 space.

Individuals are particularly concerned about the halving event of a certain AI project early next year. If there is a price correction at that time, it may be worth considering entering the market. As an industry leader, this project currently has 3-4 sub-networks that have started generating revenue, and overall, it is the most promising Web3 AI project for achieving breakthroughs.

3. Meme Coin

Meme coins have remained popular since last year, and this year there has even been a situation where major launchpads are competing for market share with a leading platform. However, the leading platform continues to maintain its dominant position and has begun to venture into the live streaming space, taking a Web3 version of TikTok approach. Opportunities in the meme coin sector are changing every day, but this platform remains the most stable choice.

4. Prediction Markets

In addition to the three main lines mentioned above, the prediction market may become a new potential main line. Data from a certain prediction platform continues to grow, while another platform has performed even better in the past month. Dozens of new prediction market projects have emerged in the primary market. A certain derivatives trading platform has also proposed a prediction market for events. Some experts believe that the development of prediction markets could disrupt the existing insurance industry, as users may directly engage with and hedge transparent probabilities and risks, rather than accepting the opaque odds from insurance companies.

However, the secondary market for this track currently lacks investable targets and can only wait for a leading platform to issue tokens. It is reported that the valuation of this platform has reached 3 billion USD.

From another perspective, the main theme of this round of market is likely to be projects that “have actual income and profits and are buying back tokens.” From this point of view, only two tokens are worth investing in.

To add a point, in the field of stablecoins and tokenization of physical assets, there is another project worth paying attention to besides the few mentioned earlier. Although it was not mentioned before because it was thought that it might not issue tokens, after listening to the latest episode of a certain podcast, I feel that this project may eventually issue tokens.

If you are optimistic about a certain stablecoin public chain project, it is due to its investors, the execution ability of its founders, and their relationship with major blue-chip DeFi projects and a certain exchange. Therefore, being optimistic about this project means being optimistic about its To B channels that serve millions of merchants and the direct involvement of a well-known venture capital firm in its construction (rather than just investment).

The “招商” battle of stablecoins on a certain derivatives trading platform has demonstrated the importance of channels outside of stablecoin issuance. In the future, stablecoin public chains may form a dual-track parallel pattern of To C and To B.