Market View

120,000 response

In the afternoon of the day before yesterday (October 1st at 2 PM), I predicted that the overall expectation for October is an increase in BTC and BTC.D, and in less than 48 hours, Bitcoin has already reached 120,000.

To be honest, Bitcoin rising from 108 to 12w in an impulsive manner within two days "is not on my bingo card," but as a bull, I am happy to accept this outcome.

116 4400 is my expectation for the rebound at 108. Currently, Bitcoin has significantly exceeded 116, and Ethereum has slightly exceeded 4400, which aligns with the simultaneous rise of BTC and BTC.D, indicating that ETH is not outperforming BTC as expected.

Now, the extremely important position of 120,000 has been touched again, my view is as follows.

Since July, Bitcoin has broken through 120,000 three times, specifically on July 14, August 11, and August 14, and all three breakthroughs were "false breakouts." Therefore, anything above 120,000 is viewed more as a deviation zone. Currently, BTC has risen to a high of 120,900; if it falls back below 120,000 again, it will be considered another false breakout, with a potential SFP emerging. If such a reaction occurs, Bitcoin may once again enter a period of correction. Based on the bullish expectations of BTC.D, the correction for altcoins will be greater than that of BTC.

If there is a pullback, you can first observe the reaction at the 115000 range.

If Bitcoin stays above 120,000 for a long time (two consecutive daily closes), I would consider it to have "stabilized" at 120,000, and it may consolidate above that level thereafter. The market trend here can refer to the price action from October 15 to November 5, 2024, where Bitcoin consolidated at a high level (never dropping below 66,000), while altcoins experienced sideways fluctuations or downward trends, rather than consolidating at Bitcoin's high level, with altcoins rising independently. This also aligns with our overall expectations for October. It may take 2-3 weeks of consolidation before we can start a comprehensive and inexpressible rise.

The best-case scenario (minimum probability) is that Bitcoin directly enters a major upward trend here, breaking through 125,000 and continuing, then the indescribable will come early, but for now, it is still considered a minimum probability event.

Therefore, in both cases 1 and 2, it is necessary to further take profits on the altcoin long positions around the 120,000 level, and only in case 3 is it not necessary to take profits. Operate accordingly based on the reaction here.

This article is sponsored by #BCGAME｜@bcgame @bcgamecoin