This morning I cleared my short-term ETH position, getting on board at 3900 and leaving the market at 4200. A little profit is enough for food and drinks during the National Day holiday.

The main reason for getting off board is seeing that the beautiful country’s government is very likely to shut down on October 1st, which will directly affect the publication of labor data on October 3rd. I vaguely remember that a few years ago, during Trump’s administration, it was also due to disagreements between the two parties that led to a shutdown. I checked some information online, and it was shut down for 36 days from December 2018 to January 2019, during which BTC dropped by 6%. The price range that year was over 3000 USD each.

Everyone is clear that the employment data from the United States this time is quite critical, as it is basically used to determine whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again and the extent of the cut. If the data is delayed due to a shutdown, I personally believe it will likely exacerbate market volatility in the short term.

Another three judgment factors, the first is that the price has reached the pressure level of the technical indicators. Currently, although it has broken through the previous high, the volume is insufficient, and there is indeed a possibility of further retracement. The second is that in the past two years, the market during the National Day holiday has shown retracement and bottoming out. I am not sure if this is due to domestic funds leaving for the holiday, but the data is here. It may not form a pattern, but at least it is a basis for judgment.

The third point is that the long positions at the 100,000 phase bottom on the liquidation map have accumulated again over the weekend, indicating that the bullish momentum is still quite strong. Considering the sentiment indicators in the market, I always believe that the current market's squeeze on the bullish contracts has not yet reached an extremely terrifying level, and the voices in favor of bullish sentiment are still relatively consistent. Many experienced retail investors are actually in a wait-and-see state, and the outflow data of BTC and ETH ETFs in the past two days indirectly proves this. (Figure 1)

A gentleman does not stand under a dangerous wall. The most disliked aspect of a risky market is policy uncertainty. Therefore, my operational decision during the holiday is to take short-term profits and wait on the sidelines, while maintaining my long-term positions unchanged. At this stage, holding positions that can be flexibly adjusted is more important than anything else. Of course, this is just my personal opinion and may not be correct; please consider it cautiously.

Recently, the concept of DEX has become very popular. I did some short-term operations with a small Position on ASTER and AVNT and made some profits. The previous dynamics and comments have also mentioned this. The coins endorsed by Boss Zhao are worth considering for long-term planning. Of course, long-term Position layout does not necessarily need to rush for current popularity. If you review most of the new coins in this round that can increase by more than 10 times, they generally go through a one-year dormant period, and after violently cleaning out leveraged chips, there will be a continuous climbing period of 2-3 months.

If you have more than 2 years of experience, after understanding the fundamentals clearly, it is still worth starting with a small Position for DCA when the coin price retraces. Personally, I believe DEX will be one of the trends in the crypto space in the future. There are many rising stars in this track, with UNI being the legendary one from 2021, and HYPE being the king of 2024. The DEX track is not overly crowded, and there is still a lot of speculation space for RWA and DIFI derivatives.

Speaking of HYPE, I have seen some very interesting data on this platform, let me share it with everyone, is this a prank or a glimmer of hope? (Image 2) #GatePerpDEX正式上线 #加密市场反弹 #BTC走势分析