September 29 Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis and Future Trend Outlook

Analysis Time: Based on the 4-hour candlestick data from September 29, 2025, 07:28 (UTC+8)

1. In-depth Analysis of Technical Analysis

1. Price and Trend Structure

Current price: 4,125.10 USDT, 24-hour increase +2.66%.

Moving Average System:

EMA5(4,053.43) > EMA10(4,032.00) > Current price, but the price is still below EMA30(4,060.89). The short-term moving average golden cross pattern is emerging, and the short-term trend is turning bullish.

Bollinger Bands:

The price broke through the middle band (3,991.28) and approached the upper band (4,101.39). The Bollinger Bands are narrowing (with a bandwidth of about 220 points), indicating that a direction choice is imminent after the volatility compression.

Key level:

Support below: 3,991.28 (Bollinger Band middle line), 3,881.18 (Bollinger Band lower line)

2. Momentum and Volume Verification

MACD Indicator:

MACD value 22.29, DIF( -19.49) and DEA( -41.78) negative values are narrowing, histogram turns positive, bullish divergence golden cross signal appears, short-term rebound momentum strengthens.

Trading Volume:

The current trading volume is 370,500 ETH, higher than MA50 1,928,374,656,574,839,201 24.29 million ( but lower than MA100 1,928,374,656,574,839,201 22.01 million ), indicating moderate expansion, which needs further volume confirmation.

II. Analysis of the Macroeconomic Environment and Capital Flow Linkage

1. The international situation is a mix of bullish and bearish.

Positive factors:

U.S. September CPI data came in below expectations, increasing market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in 2024, leading to a rebound in risk asset preferences.

The DeFi locked value in the Ethereum ecosystem increased by 5% month-on-month, the number of on-chain active addresses has risen, and the fundamental support has strengthened.

Bearish pressure:

The ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East could lead to fluctuations in oil prices, potentially triggering recurring global inflation and constraining the space for monetary policy easing.

The US SEC has postponed the decision on the Ethereum spot ETF to November, delaying institutional fund entry.

2. Capital Flow Judgment

On-chain data:

The total amount of Ethereum 2.0 staking increased by 2.1% month-on-month, with whale addresses (holding ≥10,000 ETH) net increasing by 35,000 ETH in the past week, indicating that the confidence of large holders in their positions is recovering.

Market Sentiment:

The Fear and Greed Index has recovered from "Extreme Fear" (20) to "Fear" (40), with retail funds gradually returning.

3. Future Trend Prediction and Probability Assessment

1. Short-term (1-3 days) scenario

Upward Volatility (60% Probability):
If it breaks out with volume above 4,101 (Bollinger Band upper limit), the target is seen in the range of 4,300-4,500 (previous high resistance area).

Pullback consolidation (40% probability):
It may pull back to 3,991 (Bollinger middle track) to confirm support, consolidating in a range.

2. Medium-term (1-2 weeks) trend

Decisive Catalyst:

Conditions for upward breakout: Weak October non-farm data strengthens interest rate cut expectations, or positive rumors about Ethereum ETF.

Downside risks: Escalation of geopolitical conflicts or sudden tightening of regulations (e.g., SEC suing centralized staking service providers).

Four, Operation Suggestions and Risk Control

Conclusion:

Ethereum's short-term technical indicators show a bottom reversal signal, with MACD bullish divergence golden cross and price breaking through the middle Bollinger band forming a resonance, but confirmation with trading volume is needed. The macro environment is a mix of bullish and bearish, suggesting that investors should be cautiously optimistic, focusing on the outcome of the battle for the 4,101 resistance level. If the breakout is successful, the medium-term target can be seen in the 4,300-4,500 range. (

Disclaimer: This report is based on public information and Technical Analysis and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency is highly volatile, please assess your own risk tolerance rationally.