Summary of current trends over the weekend, how to view the non-farm payrolls next week?

Good weekend, my good brothers and sisters, at 9:31 AM on September 28, 2025.

This weekend saw very little volatility, with BTC oscillating in a narrow range around the key point of 109465. After ETH fell below and recovered 3895, it oscillated in a narrow range around the 4000 level. There are no significant opportunities without deep dips, and no short opportunities without peaks!

Today's trend prediction is consistent with yesterday, and today's strategy layout is the same as yesterday's! You can refer to yesterday's strategy!

This week, it's very difficult to go long in the market; those who weren't at the key levels of contention have all been buried, while those who went short have all gotten rich!

This week's sharp drop and crash have left those of us betting on a rebound empty-handed. Once a one-sided trend emerges, it is not very friendly to us conservatives, as we find it hard to get on board. However, sometimes we also need to take a 1% aggressive approach; at worst, it results in a loss. But we must not hold positions; after holding, thinking about making a profit through T trades is not necessary. Not holding positions is our ultimate strategy, except in extreme market conditions. If we enter with 1% and directly get caught in a strong one-way trend, we should not excessively hold positions! T trading is a backup strategy, not the entire battlefield relying on T trading; otherwise, we will always be in a passive state!

It's almost noon on Sunday, and from Sunday evening to early Monday morning, the market volatility is likely to increase. For example, the high and low points from Friday and Saturday need to be monitored!

Support 108313 to 108780/107500

No pressure

At this moment, BTC is still in intense consolidation around the 109465 line, with a key resistance level at 111950 above. Yesterday, it tested the support and resistance range between 107500 and 109465, specifically the range of 108313 to 108780. Currently, it is at a balance point between bulls and bears, tempting you to jump in. Given that the North American K-line showed a small V reversal on Friday, it has repaired the indicators and sentiment from this week's continuous decline. During the low liquidity period over the weekend, the probability of a sharp drop decreases, while the demand for volatility increases!

ETH Attention

Support 3893/3805/3725

No pressure

The key point above is 4110, and everyone understands the current 4010. If it stabilizes, look up at 4060/4100; if it can't hold, look down at the support levels of 3893/3805. It's very simple: if it holds over the weekend, there may be a potential short-term shift between bullish and bearish. If it can't hold, it will continue to decline!

In terms of operations: last night around 7 to 8 o'clock, there was a very obvious ultra-short line signal switching from short to long. It is currently in a right-side trend of 5min/15min, whether a right-side formation can occur in 1h/2h depends on whether the pullback can form the next wave of support at the 3920 level. Therefore, once it falls to this position, it can be a key focus for the next wave!

Since BTC/ETH has basically been stagnant from yesterday to this moment, the thoughts and levels from yesterday and today are consistent, and the points of focus are also the same!

Regarding next week's Non-Farm Payroll report:

The small non-farm payroll can be ignored, and the current expectation is slightly positive. The expectation for the large non-farm payroll is currently negative, but the trend over the past year has not changed the high unemployment rate. From a long-term data perspective, it still supports interest rate cuts. In the short term, it depends on the results, as the non-farm payroll employment number in August was only 22,000, which is basically a year low!

There is also a seasonal factor; in November and December, Europe and the United States face a wave of holidays. At that time, the non-farm employment population will certainly rebound with increased consumption. Theoretically, there is indeed uncertainty regarding interest rate cuts, but we should also take into account the economic stimulus for the year-end sprint. Whether the annual KPI can be achieved depends on this last quarter!

In this non-farm payroll report, if there is a violent drop while the actual value and expected value are not too far apart, I believe the market will follow an independent trend, breaking free from the control of the data!

If the market rebounds from the bottom, then having a wave of counterattack is also normal, after all, this wave of decline has been too fierce, and so far there has not been a decent violent rebound, this demand is present!

This means that regardless of the situation, a sharp decline should be seen as an opportunity, especially in spot trading. A steady non-farm payroll release or around the 13th of next month could lead to aggressive declines. You can casually build a bottom position with 10-20% of your spot holdings!
#GT# #BTC# #ETH#