Kondratiev Wave Cycle Revealed: 2025 May Become a Key Investment Point for Crypto Assets!

Brothers, listen to my advice! Understanding which cycle phase you are in makes investing and making money no longer a mere talk, but a simple matter of going with the flow.

01. Making money through the Kondratieff wave is not some mysterious knowledge. It is merely a reverence and compliance with the laws of economics.

In 2025, we are standing at the intersection of new and old cycles. Those who miss the cryptocurrency opportunities in these two years are likely to regret it for a lifetime.

A well-known secret in the circle of the rich is that success in life mainly relies on cycles, not just on hard work. I firmly believe in this!

Just look at those who have become rich in recent years:

Those coal bosses can’t even recognize some characters, yet they wear gold chains all over; the landlords in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen often only have elementary school diplomas, and their Mandarin is not very fluent, but the money they earn while lying down may be the result of your entire lifetime of hard work.

Do the efforts of migrant workers and college students really count for less? Clearly not! This is the power of cycles - hitting the right timing can reduce decades of struggle.

Investment works the same way; the cycle arises from the contradiction between the one-time nature of investment expenditure and the phased nature of income, as well as the conflict between certain inputs and uncertain outputs. Some investments take decades to break even, while others can double in just a few days, entirely depending on which cycle you are in.

02, Keyin Cycle: Short-term Tidal

In 1923, British statistician Kitchin proposed that the economy has secondary cycles of about 40 months (3~5 years ). This is known as the inventory cycle, as its main driving force is the changes in corporate inventory.

Why is this happening? The root cause lies in the contradiction between rapid changes in demand and slow supply. We can decide overnight whether to eat meat tomorrow, but raising pigs takes half a year; deciding to invest in photovoltaics only takes a day, but building a factory takes two years.

The inventory cycle therefore includes four stages: active restocking, passive restocking, active destocking, and passive destocking. This 40-month cycle is closely related to corporate expansion and debt cycles, with changes in prices and interest rates caused by market supply and demand imbalances ultimately reflected in asset prices.

03, Zhulage Cycle: Medium-term Waves

The cycle discovered by French economist Juglar in 1860 averages 9-10 years and is also known as the fixed asset investment cycle. The driving factor behind it is equipment renewal and replacement.

Equipment depreciates over time, and technological advances render old equipment less efficient. Therefore, companies need to regularly update their equipment, which stimulates a round of economic upturn. Accounting standards stipulate that the minimum depreciation period for machinery and equipment is 10 years, which is also the reason why the Juglar cycle is approximately 10 years.

In addition, there is the 20-year real estate cycle proposed by Kuznets, which aligns with human life stages - buying a home and starting a family in your 20s, upgrading housing in your 40s, and needing housing for the next generation when they reach adulthood 20 years later.

04. Kondratieff Cycle: The Long Wave of Destiny

In 1925, Russian economist Nikolai Kondratiev discovered a long cycle of about 50 years through the study of centennial economic data, which includes four stages: recovery, prosperity, decline, and depression.

The phrase “Life's wealth relies on K-wave” originates from this. In theory, a person has three opportunities in their lifetime to participate in K-waves, but due to age, the actual number of opportunities is even fewer. If no opportunities are seized, wealth accumulation will be very limited; seizing one opportunity can at least lead to becoming middle class.

The Kondratiev wave cycle is roughly as follows:

• First Kondratiev Wave (1780s-1840s): Industrial Revolution of the steam engine and textile machine
• Second Kondratieff Wave (1840s-1910s): The second industrial revolution of railways, internal combustion engines, and steel
• Third Kondratiev Wave (1910s-1970s): Electric, Heavy Industry, Automotive Era
• Fourth Kondratiev Wave ( 1970s-2020s ): Internet, electronic products, communication technology
• The Fifth Kondratieff Wave ( is expected from the 2020s to the 2050s ): AI, new energy, and life sciences.

Zhou Jintao, who studies the Kondratiev wave cycle, has accurately predicted multiple economic crises. He believes that the period from 2016 to 2026 is a phase of Kondratiev depression. According to this theory, after 2026, a new round of Kondratiev upswing will arrive, marking the beginning of the next wealth cycle, and an unprecedented bull market may be on the horizon.

I am neither a lobbyist nor a promoter, I just want to remind everyone to understand the power of cycles, to follow their rules, as that may be the true investment wisdom.

After all, history keeps repeating itself, and smart people are always good at finding opportunities within it.