Tonight at 20:30, the cryptocurrency market will迎来 a key moment as the US August Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) data is about to be released. As one of the inflation indicators closely monitored by the Federal Reserve, this data will have a profound impact on the market.

Current market expectations indicate that the overall PCE in August will grow by 2.7% year-on-year, while the core PCE will grow by 2.9% year-on-year. These data will directly affect the market's judgment on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, which in turn will influence the trends of various assets, including encryption currencies.

If the PCE data exceeds expectations, it may indicate that inflationary pressures still exist. This will reinforce the market's expectation that the Federal Reserve needs to maintain high interest rates for a long time, which could lead to a stronger dollar. In this case, the cryptocurrency market may face dual pressures: on one hand, a high interest rate environment increases the opportunity cost of holding cryptocurrencies; on the other hand, investors may shift from risk assets to dollar assets in search of more stable returns.

On the contrary, if the PCE data meets or falls below expectations, it will be seen as a signal that progress has been made in controlling inflation. This situation may further strengthen the market's expectations for future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. A low interest rate environment is generally favorable for risk assets and may stimulate capital inflows into the encryption market, driving up the prices of mainstream encryption currencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Historical data indicates that the release of PCE data often triggers volatility in the cryptocurrency market. For example, after the release of PCE data in July 2025, market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut intensified, leading to short-term fluctuations in cryptocurrencies. On August 30 of the same year, core PCE increased by 2.9% year-on-year, reaching a new high since February of that year, which caused an instantaneous drop in the price of Ethereum, followed by a continued downward trend.

Given the significant impact of PCE data on the market, investors should closely monitor the data release tonight and prepare appropriate risk management. Regardless of the outcome, the encryption currency market may experience significant volatility, and participants need to remain vigilant and adjust their investment strategies in a timely manner.