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Details: ht
near bridge data shows something most ct researchers are missing.
perfect equilibrium for three straight years.
looking at this chart and the purple line tells the real story. net flows hover around zero with $15m daily bridge volume.
this is not stagnation. this is utility-driven flow.
most l1 bridge patterns look like this:
- ethereum: massive outflows during gas spikes
- polygon: inflow surges during defi summers, then exodus
- avalanche: boom bust cycles tied to incentive programs
near shows none of these patterns. sustained two-way demand regardless of market conditions.
the mechanism people missed: users bridge assets to use aurora, ref finance, octopus protocols. when operations are done, they bridge back out. repeat cycle based on need, not speculation.
this creates operational stickiness. users return because the ecosystem serves actual use cases beyond token trading.
checked the outlier days. large outbound flows correlate with near token price pumps. users bridge near tokens out to sell on chains with deeper liquidity, then return for operations.
sophisticated cross-chain arbitrage while maintaining near as operational base.
bridge equilibrium might be better than tvl for identifying which ecosystems actually work long term.
most bridge data shows sentiment swings. near shows economic activity.