❤️On September 23rd, panic sentiment spread in the information market, but institutions buying on dips suggest long-term confidence remains❤️

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As of September 23, 2025, the cryptocurrency market shows a polarized trend. Bitcoin demonstrates resilience within the range of $112,000 to $113,000, while Ethereum has experienced a more significant decline, currently priced at around $4,173, with a 24-hour drop of 2.95% to 6.1%.
Market panic sentiment has intensified, with the Fear and Greed Index dropping to 13, reaching a high for nearly a month. This sentiment is mainly driven by the significant pullback in Ethereum prices and a surge in the total liquidation amount across the network, with the total liquidation amount in the past 24 hours reaching $625 million, of which long position liquidations accounted for a staggering 81.7% ($511 million).
01 Market Overview
BTC Performance Steady: Bitcoin is currently trading in the range of $112,000 to $113,000, having retraced from its recent high of around $118,000, but remains above key support levels. As of 14:35, the quote is $113,000.
ETH leads the market decline: Ethereum has performed significantly worse than Bitcoin, dropping from the range of $4,500-$4,600 to about $4,100-$4,300. The current price is approximately $4,173, with a 24-hour drop of about 6.1%.
Altcoins are generally under pressure: overall market sentiment is cautious, and the declines of altcoins are generally larger than that of Bitcoin, reflecting a market environment with decreased risk appetite.
02 Driving Factors Analysis
Technical support for breaking levels and liquidation waves
The decline of Ethereum occurred after the $4,400 support level was broken, triggering a large number of long positions to be forcibly liquidated.
Data shows that in the past 24 hours, over 400,000 people in the cryptocurrency market have been liquidated, with a total liquidation amount reaching 1.678 billion USD. Among them, long positions accounted for 1.595 billion USD in liquidations, while short positions amounted to only 83.4354 million USD.
The liquidation heatmap shows that the accounts being liquidated mainly involve ETH and BTC, amounting to $477 million and $282 million respectively.
Market sentiment shift
The crypto fear index has dropped to 43, falling into the "fear" zone, reaching its highest point in nearly a month. This shift in sentiment is mainly due to:
The EU plans to sanction cryptocurrency platforms: In order to combat Russia's energy revenue, this round of sanctions by the EU will include sanctions on cryptocurrency platforms and a ban on related transactions.
Technical indicators are weakening: Ethereum's price has fallen below the 50-hour and 200-hour moving averages, indicating a short-term bearish trend.
Macroeconomic Uncertainty: The market is paying attention to the upcoming U.S. economic data, especially the speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
The capital flow of institutions is diverging.
Despite market fluctuations, institutional investors are still buying the dip. For example, Harmony purchased approximately $84 million worth of Ethereum in the past 24 hours.
At the same time, on-chain data shows that a large amount of ETH is being transferred out of exchanges, which may indicate a weakening of selling intentions and provide support for future price increases.
03 Technical Analysis
BTC technical level
Bitcoin has shown a certain level of resilience, staying above key support levels.
Support level:
- First support level: $112,000 (current range lower bound)
- Second support level: $111,000 (psychological barrier)
- Strong support: $108,000 (low point at the end of August)
Resistance level:
- First resistance level: $113,000 (current upper range)
- Second resistance level: $115,000
- Key resistance level: $118,000 (recent high)
ETH technical level
Ethereum's technical indicators are weak, and the price has fallen below several key moving average indicators.
Support level:
- Immediate Support: $4,100
- Key Support: $4,000 ** (Important psychological and technical support)
- Backup support: $3,850 (low point at the end of August)
Resistance Level:
- First resistance level: $4,260
- Key resistance level: $4,500 (must effectively reclaim this position to change the downward trend)
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered the oversold territory, suggesting a potential technical rebound.
04 Trend Prediction and Probability Analysis
BTC Trend Prediction
Consolidation (Probability 50%): Bitcoin may continue to consolidate in the range of $112,000-$113,000, waiting for new catalysts.
Breakout upwards (30% probability): If it breaks through the resistance at $113,000, it may advance to highs of $115,000 or even $118,000.
Downward adjustment (20% probability): If the support at $112,000 is broken, it may test the $110,000 level.
ETH Price Prediction
Range consolidation (40% probability): Fluctuating within the range of $4,000 to $4,300, waiting for market sentiment to improve.
Break below $4,000 (Probability 35%): If market sentiment deteriorates further, it may test support below $4,000.
Technical rebound (25% probability): Due to RSI being oversold, it may rebound to the resistance zone of $4,260-$4,500.
05 Operation Recommendations
BTC Operation Strategy (Recommended Index: ⭐⭐⭐)
Short-term traders: Pay attention to the breakout direction in the range of $112,000-$113,000, and set stop-loss orders strictly.
Long-term investors: The current level is suitable for accumulating positions in batches, but the position should not be too heavy.
ETH Operation Strategy (Recommended Index: ⭐⭐)
Short-term traders: Should closely monitor the defense of the $4,000 support level. Before the price effectively breaks through the key resistance level, short-term strategies may lean towards caution.
Long-term investors: You may consider paying attention to opportunities in the current volatility. The continuous buying behavior of institutions provides some support for long-term value.
06 Market Outlook and Risk Warning
The market is currently in a short-term adjustment phase, but the medium to long-term fundamentals remain solid. Expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ongoing institutional investment through ETFs provide certain support for the market.
Key Risk Factors:
- Sanctions by the EU on cryptocurrency platforms may trigger further selling pressure.
- If Ethereum breaks below the key support of $4,000, it may trigger a larger-scale decline.
- If the Federal Reserve's policy stance is hawkish, it may suppress the prices of risk assets.
Positive factors:
- Signs of institutional investors buying on dips are emerging.
- On-chain data shows that ETH is flowing out of exchanges, indicating a long-term holding willingness.
- The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle is generally beneficial for risk assets.
Market data verification: In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation amount across the network exceeded $1.6 billion, involving over 400,000 investors, with Ethereum having the highest liquidation amount. The Crypto Fear Index has dropped to 43, indicating a bearish market sentiment.
The current core characteristics of the market are dominated by panic sentiment, technical divergence (BTC is stronger than ETH), and a divergence in institutional fund movements. Investors should remain cautious and focus on the performance of BTC at the key support level of $112,000 and ETH at $4,000, as these positions will determine the short-term market direction.