Basically, the market trend in the past couple of days has been very much in line with our expectations for the subsequent movement. Starting from the interest rate decision, there was no unexpected rate cut of 25 basis points, which was the same as the market expectation. Therefore, the market performed as expected, with a slight rise followed by a continuous fluctuation and fall. This is a typical market trend of buying the expectation and selling the fact, where buying the expectation refers to the rise before the rate cut, and selling the fact refers to the decline after the rate cut.

Returning to today's market, let's first look at the distribution of liquidity. With today's market dipping again, some of the long liquidity at the bottom has been liquidated, causing the long liquidity to mainly concentrate around 113000. There is still considerable liquidation intensity for long liquidity at this position. Similarly, during the market's decline, short-term chasing short liquidity has also begun to appear. Currently, the liquidation intensity of these short-term high-leverage short liquidities is mainly around 115700, and further up is the 117000 position. If there is a rebound during the day, we will see if this part of high-leverage chasing short liquidity will be liquidated. As for the spot premium rate, there hasn't been much change, with a slight decrease. In the current decline, the decrease in premium rate has not shown significant changes, which is considered normal volatility, indicating that there has not been a large-scale sell-off. Most likely, this level of decline has not broken psychological expectations.

On the technical front, the weekly chart confirmed a closing line, forming a small bearish candle with a long upper shadow. In the previous two periods, there were rebound bullish candles, followed by a high close with an upper shadow bearish candle, confirming that this might be a high point for a weekly-level rebound. Currently, on the weekly level, it remains in a bearish trend. If the subsequent closing lines continue to show bearish candles, it is highly likely to mark the beginning of the realization of the weekly top divergence correction expectation. Additionally, from the technical indicators, the RSI has also turned downward from a relatively high position. Essentially, if the correction starts to materialize, there should still be enough space to produce a lower low than the previous correction period.

On the daily level, after a typical rebound, there is a bearish running structure that encounters resistance and falls back. Currently, the daily operation is below the MA7 line, and the weakness is obvious in the short term, with short-term support at 112000. On the technical indicators, the MACD bullish cycle is converging from a high position, currently approaching a death cross, and is about to enter a bearish cycle. The bearish sentiment in the market is quite strong. On the four-hour chart, we see the familiar scenario of continuously refreshing low points, and there is currently no sign of a bottoming out. However, from the MACD perspective, the market has been in a bearish cycle for a long time, and it is estimated that a short-term rebound to repair the indicators will come soon. Combining this with the performance of the larger cycle, the subsequent market is expected to continue to decline after waiting for the indicators to recover on the four-hour chart.

Short-term Bitcoin resistance level 114000-114500
Short-term Bitcoin support 109000-109500