As a long-time participant who follows the crypto market, I feel both excited and calm about the United States restarting the "Bitcoin Strategic Reserve" topic. This move is not only related to policy games but may also reshape the underlying logic of global asset allocation. Here are my thoughts:

1️⃣ If the U.S. includes BTC in its strategic reserves, will it ignite a bull market?

Yes, and it could be an epic catalyst.

· The significance of the signal far exceeds the amount of capital: National-level recognition will completely break the doubts about "BTC not having reserve value," attracting traditional giants like sovereign funds and pension funds to enter the market.
· Supply-demand reversal: Currently, the circulating supply of BTC is only about 19.6 million coins. If the U.S. starts hoarding (even if initially only allocating 1%-2%), it will exacerbate the scarcity and drive the price to rise non-linearly.
· Historical reference: The purchase of coins by publicly traded companies like MicroStrategy in 2020 has triggered institutional FOMO, and the impact of national actions may amplify by more than 10 times.

2️⃣ BTC Price Prediction: Short-term and Long-term Goals

· Short term (1-2 years): If the proposal is approved, it is highly likely to break through the previous high (69,000 USD) and hit the range of 100,000-150,000 USD. Liquidity premium + sentiment-driven factors may create a temporary bubble.
· Long-term (5-10 years): If multiple countries follow suit (such as Europe, Japan, etc.), the valuation model of BTC as "digital gold" will solidify. $200,000 is not a ceiling — the market value of gold is about $13 trillion, and if BTC reaches 10% of that market value, the price per coin will be close to $300,000.

3️⃣ Proposal implementation timeline and the possibility of international follow-up

· Timeline: The U.S. policy process is complex, and the optimistic expectation is that it will take 1-2 years (2025-2026). However, if pro-encryption parties gain an advantage after the midterm elections, it may accelerate progress.
· Global Response:
· Inevitable follow-up: Small and medium-sized countries (such as the El Salvador model) may quickly replicate to seize first-mover advantage;
· Great Power Game: China may strengthen its digital renminbi strategy, while the EU may differentiate (conservatives like Germany vs. innovative Eastern Europe);
· Prototype of the new reserve system: In the future, it may form a triad reserve structure of "gold + BTC + foreign exchange" to counter the excessive issuance of sovereign currencies.

✨ My final point of view

The BTC strategic reserve is not only a financial revolution but also a redistribution of geopolitical power. Individual investors should remain rational:

· Long-term holders: continue to dollar-cost average, ignore short-term fluctuations;
· New users: Avoid FOMO, prioritize learning the underlying technical logic;
· Policy Tracking: Following the statements from the U.S. Treasury and SEC is more crucial than price signals.

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