#BTC What impact will the Fed's interest rate cut have on the price of ETH and Bitcoin? As of September 16, 2025, the Fed has not announced the interest rate cut decision for September. The Fed will hold a monetary policy meeting from September 16 to 17 local time, and the interest rate decision and policy statement will be announced in the early morning of September 18 Beijing time.

The market generally expects that the Fed will announce a rate cut at that time, with a 25 basis point cut being the mainstream expectation. According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of a 25 basis point cut at this meeting is 96.4%, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut is only 3.6%. What impact will the Fed's rate cut have on the price of ETH? The Fed's rate cut may have different effects on the prices of ETH and Bitcoin, and the following is a detailed analysis:

- Impact on ETH price: A rate cut by the Fed may benefit the price of ETH. On one hand, a rate cut will improve the liquidity environment, and funds will be reallocated to high-growth, high-resilience assets. As a core asset of the new financial infrastructure, ETH has a natural advantage in absorbing liquidity. For example, on August 22, 2025, Fed Chairman Powell sent dovish signals at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, suggesting a high probability of a rate cut in September, and ETH surged over 14% on that day, breaking through the historical high of $4887. On the other hand, if the Fed officially cuts rates in September, ETH is expected to maintain its strength and further promote the spread of Altseason, boosting overall market risk appetite.
- Impact on Bitcoin Price: Historically, Bitcoin's price performance around the Fed's interest rate cuts has not been consistent. In 2019, when the Fed cut rates, Bitcoin surged significantly before the meeting, but then was sold off after the meeting as the reality of weak economic growth set in, with the positive sentiment having been priced in early. In March 2020, in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Fed made an emergency rate cut, and Bitcoin plummeted alongside stocks, before rebounding strongly with massive fiscal and monetary policy support. After the rate cut in 2024, Bitcoin continued its upward momentum, driven by factors such as cryptocurrencies becoming a topic in elections, record inflows to spot ETFs, and strong purchasing demand from companies like MicroStrategy. Regarding the rate cut in September 2025, if Bitcoin's price surges significantly before the meeting, a "sell the news" correction may occur; however, if the price remains stable or slightly declines before the meeting, the rate cut may serve to stabilize the market and even push prices higher.