October encryption ETF key ruling: The fate of SOL, XRP, DOGE, and LTC revealed

October 2025 will be a key month for the approval of cryptocurrency spot ETFs, with the relevant applications for Solana (SOL), Ripple (XRP), Dogecoin (DOGE), and Litecoin (LTC) facing the final decision from the US SEC.

According to Bloomberg analysts and market forecasts, LTC is viewed as a commodity and has the highest approval probability (approximately 90%). SOL (70%) and XRP (65%) face regulatory obstacles due to the SEC's previous accusations regarding whether they are "unregistered securities". Additionally, XRP is affected by political risks, as its parent company Ripple's stance in the CBDC field may conflict with the new government policies.

DOGE (75% of analysts predict, but regulatory assessment is only 20%) has commodity attributes, but its meme coin characteristics and high volatility undermine institutional confidence. The SEC has a history of delaying decisions, but October is the statutory final deadline.

This ruling will test the SEC's openness towards tokens beyond mainstream Bitcoin and Ethereum. If approved, especially for LTC, SOL, and DOGE, it is expected to attract billions of dollars in institutional funds, significantly impacting token price re-evaluation. Notably, some SOL ETF plans may introduce staking yield features, potentially enhancing long-term appeal. Investors should closely monitor the SEC's postponement developments at the end of September, which are often a leading indicator of the final outcome, and pay attention to the unique political risks facing XRP, despite its precedent support from listed ETFs in Brazil and Canada.