This week's two key reports on Thursday and Friday evening in the United States.

Basically, this is the key battle to decide whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September.

First, there is the revised GDP for the second quarter of the U.S. and the weekly initial jobless claims on Thursday, of course, this can only be considered an appetizer.

The market is currently quite optimistic about the expectations for the U.S. economy.

The previously announced preliminary Q2 economic growth rate of 3.0% annualized is already a good figure.

The current general expectation is that this adjustment may be slightly raised to around 3.1%.

At the same time, there are no signs of relaxation in the labor market, with initial jobless claims expected to be around 231,000, indicating a very tight job market.

The decisive inflation report on Friday - the inflation indicator that the Federal Reserve values the most - the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, essentially determines whether to cut interest rates in September.

Actually, there are only three situations up to now, each corresponding to three different plots:

1. If the core PCE month-on-month increase reaches or exceeds 0.3%, the 2-year Treasury yield and the US dollar index (DXY) will immediately rise, putting pressure on the US stock market and the crypto market as a whole. If the dollar index stabilizes above 106 and continues to rise, altcoins will experience a significant correction.

2. The core PCE increased by about 0.2% month-on-month, showing slight fluctuations, but it is mostly interpreted as a rate cut expectation after the release of other data.

3. The core PCE increased by only 0.1% or even lower, and the expectation for interest rate cuts will be brought forward quickly, causing the crypto and altcoin markets to surge in the short term.