📍 Disagreement within the Fed on interest rates

📌 Regional Fed Chairs spoke in unison, noting that the labor market remains stable and has not reached alarming levels:
- Musalem (St. Louis): No evidence of a 50bps cut, the tariff impact on core goods is still limited; a warning that a sharp rate cut ignoring the labor market could backfire.
- Goolsbee (Chicago): Need more data to be sure inflation is at 2%. It may be possible to reduce once and then pause if the data changes direction.
- Bostic (Atlanta): Jobs are not threatened yet, there is no need to rush to loosen, note that Trump's tariffs could create a new variable, which cannot be compared to previous periods of inflation.
- Daly (San Francisco): No reason to cut by 50bps, but leaving the possibility of 25bps open.

=> Goolsbee & Bostic lean towards keeping it unchanged, Musalem is in a 50/50 state, Daly may support a 25bps cut. The current FOMC stance is almost 4-4, with 2 votes yet to disclose their positions - including Powell.
source: Emily Vuong