The gold market welcomes the “long positions” era, possibly reaching $8900 by 2030.

As the global political and economic landscape continues to be turbulent, gold is once again becoming the focus of the capital markets. A recent report by gold investment company Incrementum points out that the world is undergoing a new round of financial restructuring, with gold increasingly highlighting its strategic significance as a currency asset with no counterparty risk and no inflation risk. From the deindustrialization of the United States and the uncontrollable fiscal deficit to the rise of non-state credit assets and the large-scale gold purchases by central banks, multiple factors together constitute the “gold long positions” pattern.

The report compares the current gold bull market to the opposite of the movie “The Big Short”: against the backdrop of a global financial and monetary system restructuring, strategically investing in gold will yield considerable returns. Currently, gold is in the second phase of the bull market, the “public participation phase,” characterized by:

• Media reports are becoming increasingly optimistic
• Speculative interest and trading volume increase
• New financial products launched
• Analyst raises price target

In the past five years, global gold prices have increased by 92%, and the real purchasing power of the dollar against gold has declined by nearly 50%. Last year, gold reached a historical high of 43 dollars, second only to 57 dollars in 1979, and in the first four months of this year, it has already set 22 new highs. Although it has broken through the 3000 dollar barrier, this round of increase is still considered moderate compared to historical bull markets.

Gold is breaking through absolute prices, while at a relative level ( it is forming a technical breakout compared to stocks ), indicating that a strong pattern of gold relative to traditional assets has been established. For existing investors, continuing to hold is wise; for newcomers, entering the market now remains attractive.

The report presents a new concept of the 60/40 investment portfolio, rethinking the traditional 60% stock / 40% bond allocation:

• Stocks: 45%
• Bonds: 15%
• Safe-haven Gold: 15%
• Performance Gold: 10%
• Commodities: 10%
• Bitcoin:5%

This reflects concerns about the loss of trust in traditional safe-haven assets such as government bonds. The report distinguishes between safe-haven gold and performance gold, the latter including silver, mining stocks, and commodities, and believes there is significant potential in the coming years.

The key factors affecting gold include:

1. Geopolitical restructuring: The global landscape is accelerating its reorganization, which is favorable for gold. Gold has three major advantages as a new monetary order anchor: neutrality, no counterparty risk, and high liquidity.

2. Trump policies: Addressing excessive government debt, trade policy reform, and dollar depreciation, which may lead to a slowdown or even recession in the U.S. economy, prompting the Federal Reserve to adopt a more aggressive monetary easing policy.

3. Changes in European Monetary Policy: Countries like Germany are abandoning fiscal conservatism, and it is expected that the proportion of national debt to GDP will rise significantly.

4. Central Bank Demand: Increased gold reserves by over 1,000 tons for three consecutive years. Asian central banks account for the majority, but Poland is expected to become the largest buyer in 2024. China is expected to continue purchasing at a rate of approximately 40 tons per month.

5. Continuous devaluation of fiat currency: Since 1900, the U.S. population has increased by 4.5 times, while the M2 money supply has increased by 2333 times. The growth of the money supply is a key long-term driver of gold prices.

6. Portfolio Insurance: Analyzing 16 bear markets from 1929 to 2025, gold outperformed the S&P 500 in 15 instances, with an average relative performance of +42.55%.

The report retains the concept of “shadow gold price” ( SGP ), which refers to the theoretical gold price when the base money supply is fully backed by gold:

• Fully supported M0: $21,416
• Eurozone M0 fully supported: 13,500 euros
• US M2 fully supported: $82,223
• Switzerland M2 fully supports: 29,101 CHF

The international shadow gold price shows that the currency supply of major currency areas ( such as the United States, Eurozone, United Kingdom, Switzerland, Japan, and China is covered by central bank gold reserves according to their share of global GDP:

• M0 25% coverage: $5,100
• M0 40% coverage: $8,160
• M0 100% coverage: $20,401
• M2 25% coverage: $57,965
• M2 40% coverage: $92,744
• M2 100% coverage: $231,860

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Incrementum Gold Price Model Forecast:

• Basic scenario: approximately $4,800 by the end of 2030, mid-term target of $2,942 by the end of 2025.
• Inflation scenario: approximately $8,900 by the end of 2030, mid-term target of $4,080 by the end of 2025

Currently, the price of gold has exceeded the mid-term target in the baseline scenario for the end of 2025. The report suggests that by the end of this decade, the price of gold is likely to fall between two scenarios, depending on the level of inflation over the next five years.

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The report warns that the possibility of a second wave of inflation, similar to that of the 1970s, should not be ruled out. The major deflationary trend is still observed in the coming months, but this does not mean that inflation risks have been eliminated. The Federal Reserve’s strong response seems to be only a matter of time, with possible measures including yield curve control, a new round of QE or QQE, financial repression, further fiscal stimulus, up to MMT or helicopter money.

Quantitative analysis shows that gold, silver, and mining stocks perform exceptionally well in a stagflation environment. During the reported stagflation period, gold had an average annual real compound growth rate of 7.7%, silver 28.6%, and BGMI 3.4%, while in the 1970s they were 32.8%, 33.1%, and 21.2%, respectively.

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Even though gold is slowly returning to the spotlight, a large-scale gold rush among Western financial investors is still far off. In Q1 2025, gold ETFs recorded an inflow of $21.1 billion, the second highest in history, but in tonnage, it was only the tenth highest quarter in history. At the same time, the inflow of gold ETFs is still far below that of stock and bond ETFs.

Looking back at the performance of the 1970s and 2000s, silver and mining stocks have significant catch-up potential in the current decade. Market dynamics show that gold typically leads the rally, followed by silver, mining stocks, and commodities, resembling a relay race.

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Bitcoin may benefit from the ongoing restructuring of the current world order. As of the end of April, the total market value of all mined gold is approximately $23 trillion, while the market value of Bitcoin is about $1.9 trillion, which is equivalent to about 8% of gold’s market value. The report suggests that by the end of 2030, Bitcoin could reach 50% of gold’s market value. Assuming a conservative gold price target of around $4,800, the price of Bitcoin would need to rise to about $900,000 to achieve 50% of gold’s market value.

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The report compares various macro and market key indicators from 1980, 2011, and the present, confirming the “long positions” argument: there is still room for gold prices to rise. Notably, the current significantly higher US dollar index—around 100 points—is much higher than the level during the last secular peak of gold.

Despite the intact long-term upward trend, the report points out factors that may lead to short-term adjustments:

• Central bank demand unexpectedly decreased
• Investors reduce positions and long positions decrease
• Geopolitical premium decline
• The U.S. economy is stronger than expected.
• High-tech and emotion-driven risks
• The US dollar strengthens

The report suggests that the short-term market situation is tense, and the gold price may correct to around $2800 in the short term, or even enter a phase of sideways consolidation. This adjustment may be part of the consolidation process of a bull market and will not pose a threat to the medium- to long-term upward trend of gold.

Conclusion: The gold bull market has not yet ended and is currently in the mid-term phase of public participation. Gold is transforming from being seen as an outdated relic to a key asset in investment portfolios, providing both defensive stability and offensive potential. The long-term rise of gold is based on several mutually reinforcing pillars:

• The global financial and monetary system is inevitably undergoing a profound restructuring in the face of deep political and economic turmoil.
• Government and central bank inflation tendency - monetary climate change
• The rise of regional economies with an affinity for gold, especially in Asia and the Arab world.
• Capital has shifted from US assets ) USD, US stocks, and US Treasury bonds (.
• “Performance Gold” ) silver, mining stocks and commodities ( expected excess returns

The current rise in gold prices may not only reflect a crisis but could also be the first sign of the “golden swan moment”: a rare yet extremely positive signal for gold amid global turmoil. As the existing monetary system increasingly loses credibility, the possibility of gold regaining its traditional role as a monetary asset is growing, potentially appearing in the form of supranational settlement assets—not as a tool of political power, but as a neutral, debt-free basis for trade, exchange, and trust.

As traditional safe-haven assets like U.S. or German government bonds lose trust and weaken their stabilizing function, gold is once again becoming central to long-term investment strategies. In times of geopolitical and economic turmoil, gold has once again proven itself to be a reliable safe-haven asset.

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