In the next bull run, how to find the “Holy Grail” of blockchain gaming track

Introduction

When it comes to blockchain games, what comes to mind is the deadly death spiral of the blockchain game 1.0 era. We started discussing this topic in February 2021, and now, after the tide has receded, very few projects are still alive.

Nowadays, blockchain games that emphasize playability are emerging on the market, most of which are teams from excellent games transitioning to the gaming track, creating a momentum to lead the development of blockchain games 2.0.

This article discusses: In the upcoming next bull run, is this emphasis on playability in blockchain games the most likely way to touch the “Holy Grail”? If so, how can users logically find a specific project and prepare in advance?

1. About the “Holy Grail”

1. Cryptocurrency “Holy Grail”

In February 2021, Guru, the founder of the largest Chinese blockchain content platform Bihu, delivered an exciting speech in the community titled “Finding the Holy Grail of Cryptocurrency: Bihu Founder Guru Analyzes the Potential of Productivity Platforms like Ethereum,” where the Holy Grail can be understood as a “hit project.”

Gulu believes that after Ethereum ETH transitioned to the POS consensus mechanism in 2022, it will experience an annual deflation of about 0.15%, marking the beginning of Ethereum’s second growth curve. In fact, Ethereum’s current annual deflation is approximately 0.43%, and EIP-1559 has already burned 3,550,364 ETH. The bull run will accelerate deflation, and since Ethereum is the infrastructure for L2, the prosperity of L2 will lead to the prosperity of Ethereum. The future acceleration of Ethereum is just around the corner. Hold on tight and support well!

2. The “Holy Grail” of the Chain Game 1.0 Era

The two projects that cannot be avoided are:

• Axie Infinity, total estimated revenue exceeds 400 million USD, with a circulating market cap of up to 10.4 billion USD.
• STEPN, total estimated revenue exceeds 200 million USD, with a circulating market value of up to 2.3 billion USD.

( does not include token sale proceeds )

3. Where is the “Holy Grail” of GameFi 2.0?

Based on the performance of the previous round, let’s make an estimate: total revenue exceeds 300 million USD. The overall lifecycle will be a bit longer; considering a year, excluding the first three months as low-income period and the last three months as recession period, daily revenue may range between 2 million to 10 million USD.

It is currently August 2023, seemingly a deep bear market, but BTC has already risen from around 15500U to about 30000U. There are reports that top global financial institutions are secretly positioning themselves in Bitcoin, betting on the last explosive bull run in the crypto space (. The mainstream voices in the previous round also said this ). The circulating market value of the “Holy Grail” projects in the next round of the blockchain gaming sector is estimated to exceed 15 billion USD.

2. Subcategories of Blockchain Games: Asset Composition

The ultimate goal of this article is to find the “Holy Grail” project. However, even in a bear market, new blockchain game projects are diverse and mixed, and if you spend energy analyzing each one, you must always be prepared with a quick-acting remedy.

We still need to establish a methodology for searching, first filtering categories from large to small, and then targeting precisely. Let’s first talk about categories: there are many ways to classify blockchain games, and W Labs has provided detailed classifications in past articles. This article divides blockchain games into the following four categories based on asset composition. Let’s see which of these four types are more likely to find the shadow of the “Holy Grail”:

1. NFT breeding focused games: Axie Infinity, STEPN

These two projects have ushered in the era of blockchain gaming 1.0, gaining legendary status during the last bull run, with Axie beginning at the start of the bull and StepN ending at the tail end. They are also waiting for the arrival of the next bull run, preparing to restart the “Holy Grail” aura, so the products are being iterated and improved:

Axie Infinity

It has already entered the Apple Store and Google Store in some countries, helping to bring in more new players.

Previously, players had to buy three Axies to play the game, but in a recent update, a free mode has been launched. Free players can accumulate materials and upgrade gifted Axies through daily and weekly tasks, giving them a chance to obtain Axies with decent battle power, which helps new users get started and enjoy the game more quickly.

STEPN

Proposed the FSL ecological concept, launched DOOAR, mainly used for multi-chain decentralized exchange; launched MOOAR, a multi-chain NFT marketplace and launch platform. The studio behind it will soon release a new game called Gashero, and has also collaborated on multiple games.

Currently, StepN is also available on the Apple Store and Google Store, and it can be purchased using a credit card to buy running shoes, also aiming to attract more new players.

Both of the “top dogs” from the last round come from the breeding category, highlighting the allure of breeding, while the distinctive Ponzi model characteristics lie behind it. As Guage mentioned in the previous article at W Labs titled “Why is it all a Ponzi model?”, there’s no good or bad in the Ponzi model; the scam ( is the bad thing ), directly hitting at the greed and arrogance in human nature.

Here is an additional note: the broadly defined Ponzi model is also often seen in real life. Many internet companies that have developed over the past decade started by using massive subsidies to attract users, which is also a form of the Ponzi model. Recently, the popular local fantasy blockbuster “The Investiture of the Gods” also used a similar model, featuring the most shocking scene of the entire drama, “The Grand Master returns to the court with the Four Heavenly Kings,” which filled the audience with infinite expectations for the second part, laying the foundation for the second part’s box office. This can be considered a clever and elegant Ponzi, ranking as a “Grand Master among Ponzi schemes.”

However, whether this category can continue to shine in the next round depends on the characteristic of the crypto world that emphasizes “investing in the new, not the old”. It is necessary to present users with a different new narrative, which poses a significant challenge.

2. NFT mining and Defi combination games: MBOX, Tiny world

In the era of blockchain gaming 1.0, MBOX also achieved great success, once being the leader of blockchain games on BSC and the most outstanding one on BSC, with a peak circulating market value of 1 billion USD; continuing this path is Tiny World, which is very similar to MBOX in terms of model, with a peak circulating market value of around 150 million USD. ( burned 50% of the tokens, and the burned portion is not included. ).

However, the DeFi part can only be understood and played by users and advanced users; novice users can easily be discouraged, and it is also difficult to attract users in the short term.

Those who are not losers find it hard to achieve greatness. At present, in this category, the possibility of a “Holy Grail” appearing is even smaller than in the first category.

3. Full-chain games: Dark Forest, Loot

On-chain games have recently become very popular, which are games where the game rules, calculation logic, and data storage are all completed on the chain. To expand further, on-chain games do not require permission on the chain, and assets can be freely combined. It was only gradually mentioned by everyone at the beginning of this year, and gained widespread discussion on Twitter in June and July.

We have always believed that current on-chain games cannot be classified as games, but rather as a special category similar to DEFI, because the current user base is fundamentally different from regular game users; they are basically a group of Builders and believers. However, on-chain games are the seed players with authentic crypto genes. For example, Dark Forest was written by Brian Gu alone in 2020 while he was still working at the Ethereum Foundation. During his research, he found ZK quite interesting and happened to want to create a game, so an experimental product was born. He tried a new technology: zero-knowledge proofs, to solve the problem of fog of war in the game. From that moment on, on-chain games began to take on a semblance of a game.

However, it is necessary to persist in supporting and encouraging the advancement of such products, as this is the hope for future replacement in certain fields, such as the application of zero-knowledge proofs in Texas Hold’em. Traditional online Texas Hold’em is generally too risky to play, especially after watching “All In”, everyone knows that Wang Chuanjun and others ( “sleep on the floor today, sleep on the boss tomorrow” can manipulate the system to issue any desired cards at will. However, if zero-knowledge proofs are used in Texas Hold’em, it can ensure that the dealing mechanism is open and transparent.

The entire blockchain gaming sector utilizes the inherent characteristics of blockchain; however, there are currently many limitations that hinder the design of complex logic and rules in games. Therefore, it is mainly in a phase of building infrastructure while exploring. The product experience for ordinary users is insufficient, and we should not expect to see a “Holy Grail” project emerge in the short term.

) 4. Only core assets on-chain and highly playable games.

The much-anticipated era of GameFi 2.0 is derived from the assumption that there will be a next bull run, and the necessary condition for the next bull run is that there will be a large influx of new users and new institutions through certain new opportunities in the sector. When these novice users come in, there has to be applications for them to engage with, and this category is aimed at achieving that goal.

• Focus on playability, allowing new users to get high;
• Focus on product experience, not pursuing complete on-chain status at this stage; core assets should be on-chain.
• Focus on building the user ecosystem, bridging the gap between projects and users, and ideally making users feel like part of the project.

This category of games seems to be the one most likely to reach the holy grail in the next bull run, and it is also the category that W Labs has prioritized for research from last year to this year. There are several characteristics:

1. The production team is mainly made up of excellent teams from the gaming industry, and they have standards for the playability, completeness, and aesthetics of the game. After all, Chinese games have led the mobile game industry for a decade, accumulating a wealth of experience and talent.
2. The playability of the product is significantly higher than that of native games, and it is also familiar with ordinary users’ preferences for the product. ### This point is the most important. (;
3. The original way of thinking is deeply ingrained, and the operational thinking is insufficient;

So how do we pick out the “Holy Grail” projects in this category? The definition of playability is entirely subjective, varying from person to person; you love MOBA, I prefer SLG, you play card games while I play mahjong every day. Therefore, this article will set a standard: as long as a certain blockchain game inherits the essence of a globally popular game or is even a direct imitation, then its playability has been validated by a large number of ordinary users. We will analyze the Holy Grail projects from these games.

We selected three representative blockchain game projects “Matr1x Fire, Seraph, and Oil War” from W Labs’ project database as case studies, and analyzed them one by one. They showcase different game types, different benchmark projects, and different stages of development.

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3. Case Analysis: Fierce Competition for the “Holy Grail”

) 1. Matr1x Fire: CSgo

Friends who have played CS are getting older, having been influenced by shooting games since childhood. It’s just like in 30 years, friends who play PUBG will also no longer be young, having started saying “Winner Winner, Chicken Dinner” since they were little.

Matr1x Fire began making moves in the market in Q3 2022. W Labs initially searched for people to conduct background checks on the team and sent personnel to experience the game on-site. It is indeed a team that came from a large company, with years of experience in FPS development and operation, and they have funding, so the fundamentals are quite good. Our style is to prefer taking losses rather than making wrong investments; we would rather be cautious before the birth than have a grand funeral.

After confirming that we can continue to follow up, a dedicated discussion channel has been established in the Guatian community WGGDAO, and we also call on Guafriends to pay more attention to Matr1x, regarding both the first test and the current second test.