Bitcoin price forecast: will BTC bounce back to the level of $103K after the sharp bounce back?

Today, the price of Bitcoin is fluctuating around $101,530 after a sharp bounce back from a deep sell-off that saw the asset drop below the $99,000 mark.

This bounce back coincides with the lower boundary of a multi-month ascending channel, reinforcing the technical significance of the $99,250–$100,000 area as strong macro support. However, the price is now approaching dense resistance zones of the EMA around $102,800–$104,500, which calls into question the sustainability of this bounce back.

BTC arranged a strong intraday rally from a low of $98,600 back to over $101,000, printing a bullish engulfing structure on the 4-hour chart. This movement occurred just as Bitcoin touched the lower Bollinger Band and the channel support on the daily timeframe.

The price is currently facing resistance at the 20 and 50 EMA, clustered between $102,376 and $103,861. The 100 EMA around $104,773 marks the next ceiling for growth, while the Supertrend line is still flashing red at $103,712. If BTC does not close above this cluster, the bullish continuation remains uncertain.

The RSI on the 30-minute chart has risen again to 60.5, indicating short-term strength, while the MACD has moved into a bullish trend with strong upward momentum. These indicators hint that the volatility of the bitcoin price is expanding in favor of the bulls – but only if the volume confirms.

The sharp bounce back of BTC appears to be driven by short-term oversold conditions and technical support near the $99k mark. The MACD histogram has moved into positive territory for the first time since June 20, and the RSI has reclaimed the threshold of 50.

It is noteworthy that, despite the bounce back, on-chain flows remain extremely bearish. According to the latest data, the net flow of Bitcoin on June 22 was -618.10 million, indicating ongoing selling pressure on spot exchanges.

The divergence between price and net flow signals that this recovery may be more technical than fundamental — a short squeeze or relief rally, rather than sustainable buying interest. If the bulls do not decisively reclaim the $104K level, Bitcoin's price action may remain trapped in a corrective structure.

Short-term Bitcoin price forecast: BTC faces resistance around $103K.
Looking ahead, the next critical zone for Bitcoin is at the level of $102,800–$104,000. This area contains overlapping resistance from the 20/50/100 EMA and the Bollinger Bands' middle line. A breakthrough above this range could pave the way to $106,400 and potentially to $108,250.

On the downside, immediate support is at $100,800 (VWAP) and $99,250 (дневная канала) base. A break below $99,000 will resume the broader downtrend, opening the door to a drop to $94,350 and the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement zone.

At the moment, traders should monitor the price behavior around $103,800–$104,500. A clean close above this level could shift the momentum back in favor of the bulls.