Bitcoin is consolidating around 100,000 USD, on-chain data does not show warning signals.

On June 23, an analyst published that “the price of Bitcoin recently fell sharply to $98,000, but has since rebounded to over $100,000. Although market concerns about the ‘double top’ pattern are spreading, and sentiment is gradually turning bearish, as mentioned earlier, on-chain data has not shown any obvious warning signals.”

Overall, Bitcoin seems to still be in a quiet consolidation phase, building up strength. From the 30-day moving average of Binary CDD, long-term holders are still choosing to hold their coins rather than sell.

In previous analyses, I pointed out that when the Binary CDD 30-day moving average exceeds 0.8, it often indicates that a correction phase is approaching. However, this time, the indicator peaked around 0.6 and began to decline, suggesting that there are no signs of overheating in the market yet. Although the data performance in each cycle is not entirely consistent, the moderate trend this round, which did not exceed 0.8, may still indicate that the market is entering a consolidation period, with further corrections in price or time likely to occur.

Importantly, this does not represent the end of the bull market cycle. On the contrary, similar to the previous two phases, we are likely to see another “step-like” trend, where a new round of increases follows a consolidation period. Historical experience shows that explosive rises in Bitcoin often occur when market attention decreases and sentiment is lukewarm, so the current lull may well be the prelude to the next big market movement.