The crypto market is still in a state of buildup, and volatility could explode at any moment.
Singapore's crypto investment firm QCP Capital stated that the global market remains in a wait-and-see attitude, with investors assessing geopolitical risks and the potential for a resurgence in volatility. Gold surged and then retreated after the Israeli attack on June 13, weakening safe-haven demand, while WTI crude oil prices remain firmly at the $75 level.
The energy market continues to be constrained by the Israel-Iran conflict, with rising speculation about the possibility of U.S. military intervention. The dollar has weakened slightly, as investors bet on an increased probability of direct U.S. involvement in the regional conflict within the next 48 hours, leading to a moderate withdrawal of funds from the dollar.
In the realm of cryptocurrency, BTC continues to move sideways. Despite increasing macro uncertainty and political noise from Trump's social media comments, price fluctuations remain subdued. Market sentiment is cautious, and position data shows that investors are waiting for clearer catalysts.
The risk reversal indicators for BTC and ETH show that investors in the June and September contracts are more inclined to hedge against downside risks, indicating that bulls are actively protecting their spot positions. Notably, the implied volatility of ETH June at-the-money options has fallen below that of the September contracts, reflecting a contraction in short-term specific risk premiums, which may be related to a reduction in event-driven hedging or profit-taking on short-term volatility.
In contrast, BTC's near-month contracts still maintain a slight volatility premium. The current crypto market remains in a state of readiness, where the next headline news, macro shift, or tail event could serve as a trigger for historic-level fluctuations.
The content is for reference only, not a solicitation or offer. No investment, tax, or legal advice provided. See Disclaimer for more risks disclosure.
The crypto market is still in a state of buildup, and volatility could explode at any moment.
Singapore's crypto investment firm QCP Capital stated that the global market remains in a wait-and-see attitude, with investors assessing geopolitical risks and the potential for a resurgence in volatility. Gold surged and then retreated after the Israeli attack on June 13, weakening safe-haven demand, while WTI crude oil prices remain firmly at the $75 level.
The energy market continues to be constrained by the Israel-Iran conflict, with rising speculation about the possibility of U.S. military intervention. The dollar has weakened slightly, as investors bet on an increased probability of direct U.S. involvement in the regional conflict within the next 48 hours, leading to a moderate withdrawal of funds from the dollar.
In the realm of cryptocurrency, BTC continues to move sideways. Despite increasing macro uncertainty and political noise from Trump's social media comments, price fluctuations remain subdued. Market sentiment is cautious, and position data shows that investors are waiting for clearer catalysts.
The risk reversal indicators for BTC and ETH show that investors in the June and September contracts are more inclined to hedge against downside risks, indicating that bulls are actively protecting their spot positions. Notably, the implied volatility of ETH June at-the-money options has fallen below that of the September contracts, reflecting a contraction in short-term specific risk premiums, which may be related to a reduction in event-driven hedging or profit-taking on short-term volatility.
In contrast, BTC's near-month contracts still maintain a slight volatility premium. The current crypto market remains in a state of readiness, where the next headline news, macro shift, or tail event could serve as a trigger for historic-level fluctuations.