If we assume that the current market cycle is nearing its end (purely hypothetical and not confirmed), then the market movements in early 2024 may represent the most characteristic altcoin season, and the year-end market can also be considered a wave. From the market performance perspective, when there is a general rise and alts show significant excess returns relative to Bitcoin, it is usually regarded as a feature of the altcoin season.

With the trend of diminishing marginal returns for Bitcoin in each cycle, the rise in altcoin season is unlikely to reach the strong levels seen in 2021. However, it is worth noting that the corresponding pullback is also unlikely to be as severe as it was in 2021. At that time, the market experienced almost daily liquidations, resulting in significant capital losses, with some coins nearing zero within just a few days. In contrast, the price volatility in this cycle is relatively mild.

Taking the relatively large altcoin Arbitrum(ARB) as an example, the overall performance also aligns with this judgment. Prior to this rise, there were predictions that around May 25, an important pressure time position might form, necessitating consideration for appropriate profit-taking. It has indeed proven to be a time node for market reversal.

However, it is still uncertain whether the bull market trend has ended, especially since Bitcoin and Ethereum are still in a strong rising trend, with ETF funds continuing to flow in robustly. Most alts have not experienced widespread breakouts either, at most just retracing to the starting point of this round of the major trend.

Of course, if investors have been averaging down from around $75,000 for Bitcoin, then taking partial profits or adopting a wait-and-see attitude at the current position is a very reasonable choice. The market has indeed shown some bearish trend indicators, but it is important to clarify: the bullish trend has not yet been confirmed to have ended, which means the bearish trend has not yet been confirmed to have begun.